IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v159y2020i4d10.1007_s10584-020-02667-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change impacts on South American water balance from a continental-scale hydrological model driven by CMIP5 projections

Author

Listed:
  • João Paulo Lyra Fialho Brêda

    (Universidade do Rio Grande do Sul)

  • Rodrigo Cauduro Dias Paiva

    (Universidade do Rio Grande do Sul)

  • Walter Collischon

    (Universidade do Rio Grande do Sul)

  • Juan Martín Bravo

    (Universidade do Rio Grande do Sul)

  • Vinicius Alencar Siqueira

    (Universidade do Rio Grande do Sul)

  • Elisa Bolzan Steinke

    (Universidade do Rio Grande do Sul)

Abstract

South America contributes to roughly 30% of global runoff to the oceans. Because the regional economy and biodiversity depend significantly on its water resources, assessing potential climate change impacts on the continental water balance is crucial to support water management planning. Here we evaluate the mean alterations of water balance variables and river discharge in South America by the end of this century using two different GHG scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). An ensemble comprising 25 global climate models (GCM) from CMIP5 is used to force a continental-scale hydrologic-hydrodynamic model developed for that region. A negative signal with respect to changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff is observed on most of the continent. Major decreases in the annual mean discharge are expected for the Orinoco, Tocantins, and Amazon basins, which would be around 8–14% at least (statistically significant – RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). Only the Uruguay Basin presents a positive trend for the mean discharge.

Suggested Citation

  • João Paulo Lyra Fialho Brêda & Rodrigo Cauduro Dias Paiva & Walter Collischon & Juan Martín Bravo & Vinicius Alencar Siqueira & Elisa Bolzan Steinke, 2020. "Climate change impacts on South American water balance from a continental-scale hydrological model driven by CMIP5 projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(4), pages 503-522, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:159:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02667-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02667-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-020-02667-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-020-02667-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Júnior & J. Tomasella & D. Rodriguez, 2015. "Impacts of future climatic and land cover changes on the hydrological regime of the Madeira River basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 117-129, March.
    2. Juan Bravo & Walter Collischonn & Adriano Paz & Daniel Allasia & Federico Domecq, 2014. "Impact of projected climate change on hydrologic regime of the Upper Paraguay River basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 27-41, November.
    3. P. C. D. Milly & K. A. Dunne & A. V. Vecchia, 2005. "Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 347-350, November.
    4. Deniz Bozkurt & Maisa Rojas & Juan Pablo Boisier & Jonás Valdivieso, 2018. "Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 131-147, October.
    5. Jose Marengo & Mauro Bernasconi, 2015. "Regional differences in aridity/drought conditions over Northeast Brazil: present state and future projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 103-115, March.
    6. F. F. Hattermann & V. Krysanova & S. N. Gosling & R. Dankers & P. Daggupati & C. Donnelly & M. Flörke & S. Huang & Y. Motovilov & S. Buda & T. Yang & C. Müller & G. Leng & Q. Tang & F. T. Portmann & S, 2017. "Cross‐scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 561-576, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Borges Santos & Gilberto Loguercio Collares & Lukas Santos Boeira & Thais Magalhães Possa, 2024. "Quantitative water balance of surface waters for a transboundary basin in South America," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 21755-21781, August.
    2. Alan de Gois Barbosa & Alcigeimes B. Celeste & Ludmilson Abritta Mendes, 2021. "Influence of Inflow Nonstationarity on the Multipurpose Optimal Operation of Hydropower Plants Using Nonlinear Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(8), pages 2343-2367, June.
    3. Michels-Brito, Adriane & Rodriguez, Daniel Andrés & Cruz Junior, Wellington Luís & Nildo de Souza Vianna, João, 2021. "The climate change potential effects on the run-of-river plant and the environmental and economic dimensions of sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Verônica Bernardes de Souza Léo & Hersília de Andrade e Santos & Letícia Cristina Oliveira Pereira & Lilia Maria de Oliveira, 2020. "Anthropogenic and Climate Effects on a Free Dam Tropical River: Measuring the Contributions on Flow Regime," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Salah Basem Ajjur & Sami G. Al-Ghamdi, 2021. "Evapotranspiration and water availability response to climate change in the Middle East and North Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-18, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michels-Brito, Adriane & Rodriguez, Daniel Andrés & Cruz Junior, Wellington Luís & Nildo de Souza Vianna, João, 2021. "The climate change potential effects on the run-of-river plant and the environmental and economic dimensions of sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Andrew John & Avril Horne & Rory Nathan & Michael Stewardson & J. Angus Webb & Jun Wang & N. LeRoy Poff, 2021. "Climate change and freshwater ecology: Hydrological and ecological methods of comparable complexity are needed to predict risk," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), March.
    3. Paulo Eduardo Teodoro & Luciano de Souza Maria & Jéssica Marciella Almeida Rodrigues & Adriana de Avila e Silva & Maiara Cristina Metzdorf da Silva & Samara Santos de Souza & Fernando Saragosa Rossi &, 2022. "Wildfire Incidence throughout the Brazilian Pantanal Is Driven by Local Climate Rather Than Bovine Stocking Density," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Franklin Paredes-Trejo & Humberto Alves Barbosa & Gabriel Antunes Daldegan & Ingrid Teich & César Luis García & T. V. Lakshmi Kumar & Catarina de Oliveira Buriti, 2023. "Impact of Drought on Land Productivity and Degradation in the Brazilian Semiarid Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-19, April.
    5. Calvo, Rubén & Álamos, Nicolás & Huneeus, Nicolás & O'Ryan, Raúl, 2022. "Energy poverty effects on policy-based PM2.5 emissions mitigation in southern and central Chile," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. Quiggin, John & Adamson, David & Chambers, Sarah & Schrobback, Peggy, 2009. "Climate change, mitigation and adaptation: the case of the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 149878, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    7. Conceição de M. M. de Oliveira & Lívia A. Alvarenga & Samuel Beskow & Zandra Almeida da Cunha & Marcelle Martins Vargas & Pâmela A. Melo & Javier Tomasella & Ana Carolina N. Santos & Vinicius S. O. Ca, 2023. "Hydrological Model Performance in the Verde River Basin, Minas Gerais, Brazil," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-13, July.
    8. Albert Cabré & Dominique Remy & Odin Marc & Katy Burrows & Sébastien Carretier, 2023. "Flash floods triggered by the 15–17th March 2022 rainstorm event in the Atacama Desert mapped from InSAR coherence time series," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1345-1353, March.
    9. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
    10. Nicolas Misailidis Stríkis & Plácido Fabrício Silva Melo Buarque & Francisco William Cruz & Juan Pablo Bernal & Mathias Vuille & Ernesto Tejedor & Matheus Simões Santos & Marília Harumi Shimizu & Ange, 2024. "Modern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Wenxin Xu & Jie Chen & Xunchang J. Zhang, 2022. "Scale Effects of the Monthly Streamflow Prediction Using a State-of-the-art Deep Learning Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3609-3625, August.
    12. Kukal, M.S. & Irmak, S., 2020. "Characterization of water use and productivity dynamics across four C3 and C4 row crops under optimal growth conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    13. Moldir Rakhimova & Tie Liu & Sanim Bissenbayeva & Yerbolat Mukanov & Khusen Sh. Gafforov & Zhuldyzay Bekpergenova & Aminjon Gulakhmadov, 2020. "Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Using Climate Elasticity Method and General Circulation Model (GCM) in the Buqtyrma River Basin, Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-22, June.
    14. Jinfei Hu & Guangju Zhao & Pengfei Li & Xingmin Mu, 2022. "Variations of pan evaporation and its attribution from 1961 to 2015 on the Loess Plateau, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1199-1217, March.
    15. Xiaowen Zhuang & Yurui Fan & Yongping Li & Chuanbao Wu, 2023. "Evaluation Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Over the Upper Reach of the Yellow River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2875-2889, May.
    16. Wang, Sicong & Wang, Shifeng, 2017. "Implications of improving energy efficiency for water resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 922-928.
    17. Peng Qi & Guangxin Zhang & Yi Jun Xu & Zhikun Xia & Ming Wang, 2019. "Response of Water Resources to Future Climate Change in a High-Latitude River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-21, October.
    18. Felipe Gateño & Pablo A. Mendoza & Nicolás Vásquez & Miguel Lagos-Zúñiga & Héctor Jiménez & Catalina Jerez & Ximena Vargas & Eduardo Rubio-Álvarez & Santiago Montserrat, 2024. "Screening CMIP6 models for Chile based on past performance and code genealogy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(6), pages 1-33, June.
    19. Marianne Fay & Rachel I. Block & Jane Ebinger, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2407.
    20. Yan Ma & Arvid Bring & Zahra Kalantari & Georgia Destouni, 2019. "Potential for Hydroclimatically Driven Shifts in Infectious Disease Outbreaks: The Case of Tularemia in High-Latitude Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-11, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:159:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02667-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.