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Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Deniz Bozkurt

    (University of Chile)

  • Maisa Rojas

    (University of Chile)

  • Juan Pablo Boisier

    (University of Chile)

  • Jonás Valdivieso

    (University of Chile)

Abstract

This study examines the projections of hydroclimatic regimes and extremes over Andean basins in central Chile (∼ 30–40° S) under a low and high emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). A gridded daily precipitation and temperature dataset based on observations is used to drive and validate the VIC macro-scale hydrological model in the region of interest. Historical and future simulations from 19 climate models participating in CMIP5 have been adjusted with the observational dataset and then used to make hydrological projections. By the end of the century, there is a large difference between the scenarios, with projected warming of ∼ + 1.2 °C (RCP2.6), ∼ + 3.5 °C (RCP8.5) and drying of ∼ − 3% (RCP2.6), ∼ − 30% (RCP8.5). Following the strong drying and warming projected in this region under the RCP8.5 scenario, the VIC model simulates decreases in annual runoff of about 40% by the end of the century. Such strong regional effect of climate change may have large implications for the water resources of this region. Even under the low emission scenario, the Andes snowpack is projected to decrease by 35–45% by mid-century. In more snowmelt-dominated areas, the projected hydrological changes under RCP8.5 go together with more loss in the snowpack (75–85%) and a temporal shift in the center timing of runoff to earlier dates (up to 5 weeks by the end of the century). The severity and frequency of extreme hydroclimatic events are also projected to increase in the future. The occurrence of extended droughts, such as the recently experienced mega-drought (2010–2015), increases from one to up to five events per 100 years under RCP8.5. Concurrently, probability density function of 3-day peak runoff indicates an increase in the frequency of flood events. The estimated return periods of 3-day peak runoff events depict more drastic changes and increase in the flood risk as higher recurrence intervals are considered by mid-century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, and by the end of the century under RCP8.5.

Suggested Citation

  • Deniz Bozkurt & Maisa Rojas & Juan Pablo Boisier & Jonás Valdivieso, 2018. "Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 131-147, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:150:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2246-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2246-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo Aguayo & Jorge León-Muñoz & José Vargas-Baecheler & Aldo Montecinos & René Garreaud & Mauricio Urbina & Doris Soto & José Luis Iriarte, 2019. "The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 417-435, August.
    2. Albert Cabré & Dominique Remy & Odin Marc & Katy Burrows & Sébastien Carretier, 2023. "Flash floods triggered by the 15–17th March 2022 rainstorm event in the Atacama Desert mapped from InSAR coherence time series," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1345-1353, March.
    3. Esteban Gil & Yerel Morales & Tomás Ochoa, 2021. "Addressing the Effects of Climate Change on Modeling Future Hydroelectric Energy Production in Chile," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-23, January.
    4. Calvo, Rubén & Álamos, Nicolás & Huneeus, Nicolás & O'Ryan, Raúl, 2022. "Energy poverty effects on policy-based PM2.5 emissions mitigation in southern and central Chile," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    5. Aynur Şensoy & Gökçen Uysal & Y. Oğulcan Doğan & H. Soykan Civelek, 2023. "The Future Snow Potential and Snowmelt Runoff of Mesopotamian Water Tower," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-22, April.
    6. João Paulo Lyra Fialho Brêda & Rodrigo Cauduro Dias Paiva & Walter Collischon & Juan Martín Bravo & Vinicius Alencar Siqueira & Elisa Bolzan Steinke, 2020. "Climate change impacts on South American water balance from a continental-scale hydrological model driven by CMIP5 projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(4), pages 503-522, April.
    7. Felipe Gateño & Pablo A. Mendoza & Nicolás Vásquez & Miguel Lagos-Zúñiga & Héctor Jiménez & Catalina Jerez & Ximena Vargas & Eduardo Rubio-Álvarez & Santiago Montserrat, 2024. "Screening CMIP6 models for Chile based on past performance and code genealogy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(6), pages 1-33, June.
    8. Fuentes, Ignacio & Vervoort, R. Willem & McPhee, James & Rojas, Luis A. Reyes, 2024. "Agricultural water accounting: Complementing a governance monitoring schema with remote sensing calculations at different scales," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    9. Sogol Moradian & Farhad Yazdandoost, 2021. "Seasonal meteorological drought projections over Iran using the NMME data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 1089-1107, August.

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