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Evapotranspiration and water availability response to climate change in the Middle East and North Africa

Author

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  • Salah Basem Ajjur

    (Hamad Bin Khalifa University)

  • Sami G. Al-Ghamdi

    (Hamad Bin Khalifa University)

Abstract

Quantifying the impact of climate change on evapotranspiration is necessary for devising accurate water and energy budgets in light of global warming. Nevertheless, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), little has been done to bridge this gap. This study, then, implements Penman and Budyko approaches to climatic data retrieved from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to assess evapotranspiration and water availability evolutions through the twenty-first century. Outcomes reveal that the MENA region is indeed vulnerable to a surge in temperature, which can increase evapotranspiration losses and decrease water availability. Under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP2-4.5), the potential evapotranspiration (PET) has been projected to increase throughout the MENA region by up to 0.37 mm per year during the middle of the twenty-first century (2021–2050) and by up to 0.51 mm per year during the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100). Meanwhile, the actual evapotranspiration (AET) has been projected to increase by up to 0.3 (~0.2) mm per year before 2050 (2100). The trends in both projections (PET and AET) are exaggerated under SSP5-8.5. The analysis predicted a shortage of water availability (precipitation—AET), which is alarming for most MENA regions. Relative to the reference period (1981–2010), the decline in annual water availability would reach 26 (62) mm by 2100 under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5). The rise in temperatures appears to be the principal reason for MENA and water availability responses. This study’s outcomes can facilitate accurate and realistic predictions related to evapotranspiration and water availability, which are key elements in not only managing water resources but also in devising effective climate change mitigation and adaptation plans. Graphical abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Salah Basem Ajjur & Sami G. Al-Ghamdi, 2021. "Evapotranspiration and water availability response to climate change in the Middle East and North Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:166:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03122-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03122-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Salah Basem Ajjur & Husam Musa Baalousha, 2021. "A review on implementing managed aquifer recharge in the Middle East and North Africa region: methods, progress and challenges," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 578-604, May.
    2. Gregory McCabe & David Wolock, 2015. "Increasing Northern Hemisphere water deficit," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 237-249, September.
    3. J. Lelieveld & Y. Proestos & P. Hadjinicolaou & M. Tanarhte & E. Tyrlis & G. Zittis, 2016. "Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 245-260, July.
    4. Ayten Erol & Timothy Randhir, 2012. "Climatic change impacts on the ecohydrology of Mediterranean watersheds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 319-341, September.
    5. João Paulo Lyra Fialho Brêda & Rodrigo Cauduro Dias Paiva & Walter Collischon & Juan Martín Bravo & Vinicius Alencar Siqueira & Elisa Bolzan Steinke, 2020. "Climate change impacts on South American water balance from a continental-scale hydrological model driven by CMIP5 projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(4), pages 503-522, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Soo-Jin Kim & Seung-Jong Bae & Min-Won Jang, 2022. "Linear Regression Machine Learning Algorithms for Estimating Reference Evapotranspiration Using Limited Climate Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Mohammad Zaher Serdar & Salah Basem Ajjur & Sami G. Al-Ghamdi, 2022. "Flood Susceptibility Assessment in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Qatar," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-15, August.

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