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Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Yuming Guo

    (Monash University
    University of Queensland)

  • Francesco Sera

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Veronika Huber

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Universidad Pablo de Olavide)

  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Climate Analytics)

  • Dann Mitchell

    (University of Bristol)

  • Shilu Tong

    (Anhui Medical University
    Shanghai Jiao-Tong University
    Queensland University of Technology)

  • Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho

    (University of São Paulo)

  • Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva

    (University of São Paulo)

  • Eric Lavigne

    (University of Ottawa
    Healthy Environments and Consumer Safety Branch, Health Canada)

  • Patricia Matus Correa

    (Universidad de los Andes)

  • Nicolas Valdes Ortega

    (Universidad de los Andes)

  • Haidong Kan

    (Fudan University)

  • Samuel Osorio

    (University of São Paulo)

  • Jan Kyselý

    (Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
    Czech University of Life Sciences)

  • Aleš Urban

    (Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic)

  • Jouni J. K. Jaakkola

    (University of Oulu)

  • Niilo R. I. Ryti

    (University of Oulu)

  • Mathilde Pascal

    (Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency)

  • Patrick G. Goodman

    (Dublin Institute of Technology)

  • Ariana Zeka

    (Brunel University London)

  • Paola Michelozzi

    (Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service)

  • Matteo Scortichini

    (Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service)

  • Masahiro Hashizume

    (Nagasaki University)

  • Yasushi Honda

    (University of Tsukuba)

  • Magali Hurtado-Diaz

    (National Institute of Public Health)

  • Julio Cruz

    (National Institute of Public Health)

  • Xerxes Seposo

    (Kyoto University
    Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies)

  • Ho Kim

    (Seoul National University)

  • Aurelio Tobias

    (Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC))

  • Carmen Íñiguez

    (University of Valencia)

  • Bertil Forsberg

    (Umeå University)

  • Daniel Oudin Åström

    (Umeå University)

  • Martina S. Ragettli

    (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
    University of Basel)

  • Martin Röösli

    (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
    University of Basel)

  • Yue Leon Guo

    (National Taiwan University (NTU) and NTU Hospital)

  • Chang-fu Wu

    (National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes)

  • Antonella Zanobetti

    (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)

  • Joel Schwartz

    (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)

  • Michelle L. Bell

    (Yale University)

  • Tran Ngoc Dang

    (University of Medicine and Pharmacy
    Duy Tan University)

  • Dung Van

    (University of Medicine and Pharmacy)

  • Clare Heaviside

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    Public Health England)

  • Sotiris Vardoulakis

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    Institute of Occupational Medicine)

  • Shakoor Hajat

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Andy Haines

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Ben Armstrong

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Kristie L. Ebi

    (University of Washington)

  • Antonio Gasparrini

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

Abstract

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera & Yuming Guo & Francesco Sera & Veronika Huber & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Dann Mitchell & Shilu Tong & Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho & Paulo Hilario Nascime, 2018. "Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 391-402, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:150:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2274-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sonia I. Seneviratne & Markus G. Donat & Andy J. Pitman & Reto Knutti & Robert L. Wilby, 2016. "Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets," Nature, Nature, vol. 529(7587), pages 477-483, January.
    2. J. Lelieveld & Y. Proestos & P. Hadjinicolaou & M. Tanarhte & E. Tyrlis & G. Zittis, 2016. "Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 245-260, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chin Leong Lim, 2020. "Fundamental Concepts of Human Thermoregulation and Adaptation to Heat: A Review in the Context of Global Warming," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-34, October.
    2. Falchetta, Giacomo & Mistry, Malcolm N., 2021. "The role of residential air circulation and cooling demand for electrification planning: Implications of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Raimi, Daniel, 2021. "Effects of Climate Change on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality: A Literature Review to Inform Updated Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon," RFF Working Paper Series 21-12, Resources for the Future.
    4. Samuel Lüthi & Christopher Fairless & Erich M. Fischer & Noah Scovronick & Armstrong & Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho & Yue Leon Guo & Yuming Guo & Yasushi Honda & Veronika Huber & Jan K, 2023. "Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Thomas Longden, 2019. "The impact of temperature on mortality across different climate zones," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(2), pages 221-242, November.
    6. Kai Chen & Evan Schrijver & Sidharth Sivaraj & Francesco Sera & Noah Scovronick & Leiwen Jiang & Dominic Roye & Eric Lavigne & Jan Kyselý & Aleš Urban & Alexandra Schneider & Veronika Huber & Joana Ma, 2024. "Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.

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