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Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

Author

Listed:
  • Kai Chen

    (Yale School of Public Health
    Yale School of Public Health)

  • Evan Schrijver

    (University of Bern
    University of Bern)

  • Sidharth Sivaraj

    (University of Bern
    University of Bern)

  • Francesco Sera

    (University of Florence)

  • Noah Scovronick

    (Emory University)

  • Leiwen Jiang

    (Shanghai University
    Population Council)

  • Dominic Roye

    (Climate Research Foundation (FIC)
    CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP))

  • Eric Lavigne

    (Health Canada
    University of Ottawa)

  • Jan Kyselý

    (Czech Academy of Sciences
    Czech University of Life Sciences)

  • Aleš Urban

    (Czech Academy of Sciences
    Czech University of Life Sciences)

  • Alexandra Schneider

    (Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH))

  • Veronika Huber

    (Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH)
    LMU Munich)

  • Joana Madureira

    (Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge
    Universidade do Porto
    Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR))

  • Malcolm N. Mistry

    (Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    Ca’ Foscari University of Venice)

  • Ivana Cvijanovic

    (ISGlobal - Barcelona Institute for Global Health)

  • Antonio Gasparrini

    (Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera

    (University of Bern
    University of Bern)

Abstract

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Chen & Evan Schrijver & Sidharth Sivaraj & Francesco Sera & Noah Scovronick & Leiwen Jiang & Dominic Roye & Eric Lavigne & Jan Kyselý & Aleš Urban & Alexandra Schneider & Veronika Huber & Joana Ma, 2024. "Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-45901-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z
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    as
    1. Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera & Yuming Guo & Francesco Sera & Veronika Huber & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Dann Mitchell & Shilu Tong & Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho & Paulo Hilario Nascime, 2018. "Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 391-402, October.
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