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A crop and cultivar-specific approach to assess future winter chill risk for fruit and nut trees

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  • R. Darbyshire

    (University of Melbourne)

  • P. Measham

    (University of Tasmania)

  • I. Goodwin

    (University of Melbourne
    Victorian Government)

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change will influence winter chill accumulation, with future declines likely in temperate locations. However, these declines only translate as impacts when cultivar winter chilling requirements are not satisfied. This study presents a methodology to evaluate future impacts of declining winter chill through a cultivarspecific approach which is useful for growers, industry and policy-makers to develop adaptation strategies. A risk based system was applied to represent the likelihood of meeting cultivar chilling requirements using low, medium, medium-high and high risk ratings based on percentiles. This was combined with climate projection uncertainty graphically at 16 Australian growing districts historically (1981–2010) and for 2030, 2050 and 2090. The results demonstrated that impacts and likely adaptation options differed between cultivars, some recording limited risk at all sites out to 2090 ('Nonpareil' almond) whilst others recorded greater risk both historically and into the future ('Chandler' walnut). Notably, risk differed across sites and with the future time period. These results highlight which cultivars are susceptible to low winter chill conditions, where this risk does and does not manifest and the different time horizons at which the risk will materialise across Australia's main growing districts. Using this approach, changes in winter chill conditions are presented in a useable form which allows for appropriate climate adaptation strategies to be developed, securing the industries into the future.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Darbyshire & P. Measham & I. Goodwin, 2016. "A crop and cultivar-specific approach to assess future winter chill risk for fruit and nut trees," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 541-556, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:137:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1692-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1692-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Penny Whetton & Kevin Hennessy & John Clarke & Kathleen McInnes & David Kent, 2012. "Use of Representative Climate Futures in impact and adaptation assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 433-442, December.
    2. Jun, Mikyoung & Knutti, Reto & Nychka, Douglas W, 2008. "Spatial Analysis to Quantify Numerical Model Bias and Dependence," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(483), pages 934-947.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Fernandez & Lars Caspersen & Ilja Illert & Eike Luedeling, 2021. "Warm winters challenge the cultivation of temperate species in South America—a spatial analysis of chill accumulation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Andreas Buerkert & Eduardo Fernandez & Beke Tietjen & Eike Luedeling, 2020. "Revisiting climate change effects on winter chill in mountain oases of northern Oman," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1399-1417, October.
    3. Haïfa Benmoussa & Eike Luedeling & Mohamed Ghrab & Mehdi Ben Mimoun, 2020. "Severe winter chill decline impacts Tunisian fruit and nut orchards," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1249-1267, October.
    4. Eduardo Fernandez & Cory Whitney & Italo F. Cuneo & Eike Luedeling, 2020. "Prospects of decreasing winter chill for deciduous fruit production in Chile throughout the 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 423-439, April.
    5. Hossein Noorazar & Lee Kalcsits & Vincent P. Jones & Matthew S. Jones & Kirti Rajagopalan, 2022. "Climate change and chill accumulation: implications for tree fruit production in cold-winter regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-16, April.

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