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Climate change and chill accumulation: implications for tree fruit production in cold-winter regions

Author

Listed:
  • Hossein Noorazar

    (Washington State University)

  • Lee Kalcsits

    (Washington State University)

  • Vincent P. Jones

    (Washington State University)

  • Matthew S. Jones

    (Washington State University)

  • Kirti Rajagopalan

    (Washington State University)

Abstract

Winter chill accumulation is critical for the productivity and profitability of perennial tree fruit systems. Several studies have quantified the impacts of global warming on chill accumulation in the warmer production regions of the world, where insufficient chill events occur and their frequency is increasing. In contrast, we focus on a region with relatively cold winters–the Pacific Northwest United States (PNW)–where insufficient chill events are currently absent, and quantify the potential for introduction of these risks under climate change. Our results show spatial variation within the PNW, with chill accumulation projected to increase in some areas but decrease in others. There was also spatiotemporal variation in the driving factors of changes to chill accumulation. Even with decreases in chill accumulation, there are likely minimal issues with insufficient chill accumulation. However, delayed chill accumulation in combination with advances in the onset of heat accumulation can potentially shift the region from one where spring phenology is primarily forcing-driven to one where interaction between chilling and forcing processes become important. These interactions might create production risks for varieties with high chill requirements, post mid-21st century under high emissions scenarios. Future work should focus on understanding, modeling, and projecting responses across these overlapping chilling and forcing processes. Additionally, given significant spatial differences across a relatively small geographic range, it is also critical to understand and model these dynamics at a local landscape resolution for regions such as the PNW.

Suggested Citation

  • Hossein Noorazar & Lee Kalcsits & Vincent P. Jones & Matthew S. Jones & Kirti Rajagopalan, 2022. "Climate change and chill accumulation: implications for tree fruit production in cold-winter regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-16, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:171:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03339-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03339-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    2. Laurie Houston & Susan Capalbo & Clark Seavert & Meghan Dalton & David Bryla & Ramesh Sagili, 2018. "Specialty fruit production in the Pacific Northwest: adaptation strategies for a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 159-171, January.
    3. R. Darbyshire & P. Measham & I. Goodwin, 2016. "A crop and cultivar-specific approach to assess future winter chill risk for fruit and nut trees," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 541-556, August.
    4. Laurie Houston & Susan Capalbo & Clark Seavert & Meghan Dalton & David Bryla & Ramesh Sagili, 2018. "Erratum to: Specialty fruit production in the Pacific Northwest: adaptation strategies for a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 173-173, January.
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