IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v171y2022i3d10.1007_s10584-022-03339-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change and chill accumulation: implications for tree fruit production in cold-winter regions

Author

Listed:
  • Hossein Noorazar

    (Washington State University)

  • Lee Kalcsits

    (Washington State University)

  • Vincent P. Jones

    (Washington State University)

  • Matthew S. Jones

    (Washington State University)

  • Kirti Rajagopalan

    (Washington State University)

Abstract

Winter chill accumulation is critical for the productivity and profitability of perennial tree fruit systems. Several studies have quantified the impacts of global warming on chill accumulation in the warmer production regions of the world, where insufficient chill events occur and their frequency is increasing. In contrast, we focus on a region with relatively cold winters–the Pacific Northwest United States (PNW)–where insufficient chill events are currently absent, and quantify the potential for introduction of these risks under climate change. Our results show spatial variation within the PNW, with chill accumulation projected to increase in some areas but decrease in others. There was also spatiotemporal variation in the driving factors of changes to chill accumulation. Even with decreases in chill accumulation, there are likely minimal issues with insufficient chill accumulation. However, delayed chill accumulation in combination with advances in the onset of heat accumulation can potentially shift the region from one where spring phenology is primarily forcing-driven to one where interaction between chilling and forcing processes become important. These interactions might create production risks for varieties with high chill requirements, post mid-21st century under high emissions scenarios. Future work should focus on understanding, modeling, and projecting responses across these overlapping chilling and forcing processes. Additionally, given significant spatial differences across a relatively small geographic range, it is also critical to understand and model these dynamics at a local landscape resolution for regions such as the PNW.

Suggested Citation

  • Hossein Noorazar & Lee Kalcsits & Vincent P. Jones & Matthew S. Jones & Kirti Rajagopalan, 2022. "Climate change and chill accumulation: implications for tree fruit production in cold-winter regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-16, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:171:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03339-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03339-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-022-03339-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-022-03339-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurie Houston & Susan Capalbo & Clark Seavert & Meghan Dalton & David Bryla & Ramesh Sagili, 2018. "Erratum to: Specialty fruit production in the Pacific Northwest: adaptation strategies for a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 173-173, January.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    3. Laurie Houston & Susan Capalbo & Clark Seavert & Meghan Dalton & David Bryla & Ramesh Sagili, 2018. "Specialty fruit production in the Pacific Northwest: adaptation strategies for a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 159-171, January.
    4. R. Darbyshire & P. Measham & I. Goodwin, 2016. "A crop and cultivar-specific approach to assess future winter chill risk for fruit and nut trees," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 541-556, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eduardo Fernandez & Lars Caspersen & Ilja Illert & Eike Luedeling, 2021. "Warm winters challenge the cultivation of temperate species in South America—a spatial analysis of chill accumulation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Zhe Chen & Apurbo Sarkar & Ahmed Khairul Hasan & Xiaojing Li & Xianli Xia, 2021. "Evaluation of Farmers’ Ecological Cognition in Responses to Specialty Orchard Fruit Planting Behavior: Evidence in Shaanxi and Ningxia, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, October.
    3. Maria Sabbagh & Luciano Gutierrez, 2022. "Micro-Irrigation Technology Adoption in the Bekaa Valley of Lebanon: A Behavioural Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-19, June.
    4. T Sheehan & D Bachelet, 2019. "A fuzzy logic decision support model for climate-driven biomass loss risk in western Oregon and Washington," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-21, October.
    5. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    6. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    7. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    8. Gong, Ziqian & Baker, Justin S. & Wade, Christopher M. & Havlík, Petr, 2024. "Irrigation intensification in U.S. agriculture under climate change – an adaptation mechanism or trade-induced response?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343581, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Islam, AFM Tariqul & Islam, AKM Saiful & Islam, GM Tarekul & Bala, Sujit Kumar & Salehin, Mashfiqus & Choudhury, Apurba Kanti & Dey, Nepal C. & Hossain, Akbar, 2022. "Adaptation strategies to increase water productivity of wheat under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    10. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    13. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    14. Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Waisman, Henri & Guivarch, Céline & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2012. "Mitigation costs in second-best economies: time profile of emission reductions and sequencing of accompanying measures," Conference papers 332206, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Schaeffer, Michiel & Gohar, Laila & Kriegler, Elmar & Lowe, Jason & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2015. "Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 257-268.
    16. Kokou Amega & Yendoubé Laré & Ramchandra Bhandari & Yacouba Moumouni & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Saidou Madougou, 2022. "Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-24, December.
    17. Jung-A Yang & Sooyoul Kim & Sangyoung Son & Nobuhito Mori & Hajime Mase, 2020. "Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 425-442, September.
    18. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    19. Guo, Jinggang & Prestemon, Jeffrey & Johnston, Craig, 2023. "Forest market outlook in the Southern United States," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    20. Fahad Saeed & Mansour Almazroui & Nazrul Islam & Mariam Saleh Khan, 2017. "Intensification of future heat waves in Pakistan: a study using CORDEX regional climate models ensemble," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1635-1647, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:171:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03339-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.