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Seasonal and intraseasonal changes of African monsoon climates in 21st century CORDEX projections

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  • L. Mariotti
  • I. Diallo
  • E. Coppola
  • F. Giorgi

Abstract

We analyze a mini ensemble of regional climate projections over the CORDEX Africa domain carried out with RegCM4 model as part of the Phase I CREMA experiment (Giorgi 2013 ). RegCM4 is driven by the HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM global models for the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration scenarios. The focus of the analysis is on seasonal and intraseasonal monsoon characteristics. We find two prominent change signals. Over West Africa and the Sahel MPI produces a forward shift in the monsoon season in line with previous findings, and this shift is also simulated by the RegCM4. Furthermore, the regional model produces a widespread decrease of monsoon precipitation (when driven by both MPI and HadGEM) associated with decreased easterly wave activity in the 6–9 days regime and with soil moisture-precipitation interactions. South of the equator we find an extension of the dry season with delayed onset and anticipated recession of the monsoon and a narrowing and strengthening of the ITCZ precipitation band. This signal is consistent in all global and regional model projections, although with different spatial detail. We plan to enlarge this mini-ensemble as a further contribution to the CORDEX project to better assess the robustness of the signals found in this paper. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • L. Mariotti & I. Diallo & E. Coppola & F. Giorgi, 2014. "Seasonal and intraseasonal changes of African monsoon climates in 21st century CORDEX projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 53-65, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:125:y:2014:i:1:p:53-65
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1097-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anji Seth & Sara Rauscher & Maisa Rojas & Alessandra Giannini & Suzana Camargo, 2011. "Enhanced spring convective barrier for monsoons in a warmer world?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(2), pages 403-414, January.
    2. Anonymous, 2013. "Introduction to the Issue," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 243-243, December.
    3. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    4. Anonymous, 2013. "Introduction to the Issue," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 129-130, November.
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    1. Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla & Nellie Elguindi & Filippo Giorgi & Dominik Wisser, 2016. "Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 241-253, January.
    2. Mouhamadou Sylla & Nellie Elguindi & Filippo Giorgi & Dominik Wisser, 2016. "Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 241-253, January.
    3. Nazan An & Mustafa Tufan Turp & Murat Türkeş & Mehmet Levent Kurnaz, 2020. "Mid-Term Impact of Climate Change on Hazelnut Yield," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-20, May.
    4. Marta Llopart & Erika Coppola & Filippo Giorgi & Rosmeri Rocha & Santiago Cuadra, 2014. "Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 111-125, July.
    5. Talardia Gbangou & Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla & Onemayin David Jimoh & Appollonia Aimiosino Okhimamhe, 2018. "Assessment of projected agro-climatic indices over Awun river basin, Nigeria for the late twenty-first century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 445-462, December.
    6. Filippo Giorgi, 2014. "Introduction to the special issue: the phase I CORDEX RegCM4 hyper-matrix (CREMA) experiment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 1-5, July.
    7. Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo & Ismaïla Diallo & Moussa Diakhaté & Derbetini A. Vondou & Mamadou L. Mbaye & Andreas Haensler & Amadou T. Gaye & Clément Tchawoua, 2019. "Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall events from CORDEX simulations over Central Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 339-357, August.

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