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Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins

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  • Marta Llopart
  • Erika Coppola
  • Filippo Giorgi
  • Rosmeri Rocha
  • Santiago Cuadra

Abstract

We analyze the local and remote impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the Amazon and La Plata basins of South America (SA) in an ensemble of four 21st century projections (1970–2100, RCP8.5 scenario) with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by the HadGEM, GFDL and MPI global climate models (GCMs) over the SA CORDEX domain. Two RegCM4 configurations are used, one employing the CLM land surface and the Emanuel convective schemes, and one using the BATS land surface and Grell (over land) convection schemes. First, we find considerable sensitivity of the precipitation change signal to both the driving GCM and the RegCM4 physics schemes (with the latter even greater than the first), highlighting the pronounced uncertainty of regional projections over the region. However, some improvements in the simulation of the annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and La Plata basins is found when using RegCM4, and some consistent change signals across the experiments are found. One is a tendency towards an extension of the dry season over central SA deriving from a late onset and an early retreat of the SA monsoon. The second is a dipolar response consisting of reduced precipitation over the broad Amazon and Central Brazil region and increased precipitation over the La Plata basin and central Argentina. An analysis of the relative influence on the change signal of local soil-moisture feedbacks and remote effects of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the Niño 3.4 region indicates that the former is prevalent over the Amazon basin while the latter dominates over the La Plata Basin. Also, the soil moisture feedback has a larger role in RegCM4 than in the GCMs. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Marta Llopart & Erika Coppola & Filippo Giorgi & Rosmeri Rocha & Santiago Cuadra, 2014. "Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 111-125, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:125:y:2014:i:1:p:111-125
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1140-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anonymous, 2014. "Introduction to the Issue," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-2, May.
    2. Filippo Giorgi, 2014. "Introduction to the special issue: the phase I CORDEX RegCM4 hyper-matrix (CREMA) experiment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 1-5, July.
    3. L. Mariotti & I. Diallo & E. Coppola & F. Giorgi, 2014. "Seasonal and intraseasonal changes of African monsoon climates in 21st century CORDEX projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 53-65, July.
    4. Erika Coppola & Filippo Giorgi & Francesca Raffaele & Ramon Fuentes-Franco & Graziano Giuliani & Marta LLopart-Pereira & Ashu Mamgain & Laura Mariotti & Gulilat Diro & Csaba Torma, 2014. "Present and future climatologies in the phase I CREMA experiment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 23-38, July.
    5. Anonymous, 2014. "Introduction to the Issue," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 109-110, August.
    6. Luiz Krüger & Rosmeri Rocha & Michelle Reboita & Tércio Ambrizzi, 2012. "RegCM3 nested in HadAM3 scenarios A2 and B2: projected changes in extratropical cyclogenesis, temperature and precipitation over the South Atlantic Ocean," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 599-621, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rafael J. R. Batista & Fabio L. T. Gonçalves & Rosmeri P. Rocha, 2016. "Present climate and future projections of the thermal comfort index for the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 439-454, August.
    2. Filippo Giorgi, 2014. "Introduction to the special issue: the phase I CORDEX RegCM4 hyper-matrix (CREMA) experiment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 1-5, July.
    3. Claudio Szlafsztein, 2015. "Management of natural disasters in the Brazilian Amazon region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(3), pages 1745-1757, April.
    4. Júlia Alves Menezes & Ulisses Confalonieri & Ana Paula Madureira & Isabela de Brito Duval & Rhavena Barbosa dos Santos & Carina Margonari, 2018. "Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-30, February.
    5. Lucila Marcela Beltrán-Tolosa & Carlos Navarro-Racines & Prajal Pradhan & Gisella S. Cruz-Garcia & Reynaldo Solis & Marcela Quintero, 2020. "Action needed for staple crops in the Andean-Amazon foothills because of climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(6), pages 1103-1127, August.

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