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Assessing future changes in seasonal climatic extremes in the Ganges river basin using an ensemble of regional climate models

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  • Neha Mittal
  • Ashok Mishra
  • Rajendra Singh
  • Pankaj Kumar

Abstract

Using an ensemble of four high resolution (~25 km) regional climate models, this study analyses the future (2021–2050) spatial distribution of seasonal temperature and precipitation extremes in the Ganges river basin based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The model validation results (1989–2008) show that the models simulate seasonality and spatial distribution of extreme temperature events better than precipitation. The models are able to capture fine topographical detail in the spatial distribution of indices based on their ability to resolve processes at a higher regional resolution. Future simulations of extreme temperature indices generally agree with expected warming in the Ganges basin, with considerable seasonal and spatial variation. Significantly warmer summers in the central part of the basin along with basin-wide increase in night temperature are expected during the summer and monsoon months. An increase in heavy precipitation indices during monsoon, coupled with extended periods without precipitation during the winter months; indicates an increase in the incidence of extreme events. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Neha Mittal & Ashok Mishra & Rajendra Singh & Pankaj Kumar, 2014. "Assessing future changes in seasonal climatic extremes in the Ganges river basin using an ensemble of regional climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(2), pages 273-286, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:123:y:2014:i:2:p:273-286
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1056-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. René R Wijngaard & Arthur F Lutz & Santosh Nepal & Sonu Khanal & Saurav Pradhananga & Arun B Shrestha & Walter W Immerzeel, 2017. "Future changes in hydro-climatic extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-26, December.
    2. Ajay Gajanan Bhave & Neha Mittal & Ashok Mishra & Narendra Singh Raghuwanshi, 2016. "Integrated Assessment of no-Regret Climate Change Adaptation Options for Reservoir Catchment and Command Areas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1001-1018, February.
    3. Chaturvedi, Ashish K. & Surendran, U & Gopinath, Girish & Chandran, K Madhava & NK, Anjali & CT, Mohamed Fasil, 2019. "Elucidation of stage specific physiological sensitivity of okra to drought stress through leaf gas exchange, spectral indices, growth and yield parameters," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 92-104.

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