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Combining climatological and participatory approaches for assessing changes in extreme climatic indices at regional scale

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  • Neha Mittal
  • Ashok Mishra
  • Rajendra Singh

Abstract

This paper combines the climatological and societal perspectives for assessing future climatic extremes over Kangasabati River basin in India using an ensemble of four high resolution (25 km) regional climate model (RCM) simulations from 1970 to 2050. The relevant extreme indices and their thresholds are defined in consultation with stakeholders and are then compared using RCM simulations. To evaluate the performance of RCM in realistically representing atmospheric processes in the basin, model simulations driven with ERAInterim global re-analysis data from 1989 to 2008 are compared with observations. The models perform well in simulating seasonality, interannual variability and climatic extremes. Future climatic extremes are evaluated based on RCM simulations driven by GCMs, for present (1970–1999) and for the SRES A1B scenario for future (2021–2050) period. The analysis shows an intensification of majority of extremes as projected by future ensemble mean. The study suggests that there is a marked consistency in stakeholder observed changes in climate extremes and future predicted trends. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Neha Mittal & Ashok Mishra & Rajendra Singh, 2013. "Combining climatological and participatory approaches for assessing changes in extreme climatic indices at regional scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 603-615, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:119:y:2013:i:3:p:603-615
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0760-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Revadekar & D. Kothawale & S. Patwardhan & G. Pant & K. Rupa Kumar, 2012. "About the observed and future changes in temperature extremes over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 1133-1155, February.
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    1. Neha Mittal & Ashok Mishra & Rajendra Singh & Pankaj Kumar, 2014. "Assessing future changes in seasonal climatic extremes in the Ganges river basin using an ensemble of regional climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(2), pages 273-286, March.
    2. Neha Mittal & Ajay Gajanan Bhave & Ashok Mishra & Rajendra Singh, 2016. "Impact of Human Intervention and Climate Change on Natural Flow Regime," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 685-699, January.
    3. Ajay Bhave & Ashok Mishra & Narendra Raghuwanshi, 2014. "Evaluation of hydrological effect of stakeholder prioritized climate change adaptation options based on multi-model regional climate projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(2), pages 225-239, March.
    4. Christelle Legay & Geneviève Cloutier & Salem Chakhar & Florent Joerin & Manuel Rodriguez, 2015. "Estimation of urban water supply issues at the local scale: a participatory approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 491-503, June.
    5. Marco Turco & Antonella Sanna & Sixto Herrera & Maria-Carmen Llasat & José Gutiérrez, 2013. "Large biases and inconsistent climate change signals in ENSEMBLES regional projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 859-869, October.
    6. Neha Mittal & Ajay Bhave & Ashok Mishra & Rajendra Singh, 2016. "Impact of Human Intervention and Climate Change on Natural Flow Regime," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 685-699, January.

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