IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v138y2016i1d10.1007_s10584-016-1719-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of climate change on the winegrape vineyards of the Portuguese Douro region

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Cunha

    (Universidade do Porto and Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo-Espaciais)

  • Christian Richter

    (German University in Cairo)

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the impact of spring temperature (ST) and soil water (SW) on wine production volume (WPV) for the period 1933 to 2013 in the Douro region. We employ a state-space regression model to capture possible structural changes in wine production caused by a change in ST and/or SW. We find that the ST explains about 65 % of the variability of WPV. In contrast, the summer SW level increases the R adj-square to 83 % and the Akaike criterion value was lower. We also find interesting dynamic properties of SW and ST. The immediate impact of an increase in SW is negative for WPV, while the SW that is in the ground, i.e. from the previous 2 and 3 years, have a positive effect on actual WPV. Moreover, the individual changes of ST and SW have similar dynamic impact on WPV. Our main finding is that climate change does not only change the variables in question but also the winegrape vineyards adding to the negative impact on WPV levels. As a result we observe a shift of the relative importance away from ST to SW.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Cunha & Christian Richter, 2016. "The impact of climate change on the winegrape vineyards of the Portuguese Douro region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 239-251, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1719-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1719-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1719-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-016-1719-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Santos & S. Grätsch & M. Karremann & G. Jones & J. Pinto, 2013. "Ensemble projections for wine production in the Douro Valley of Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 211-225, March.
    2. S. Urhausen & S. Brienen & A. Kapala & C. Simmer, 2011. "Climatic conditions and their impact on viticulture in the Upper Moselle region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 349-373, December.
    3. M. Moriondo & G. Jones & B. Bois & C. Dibari & R. Ferrise & G. Trombi & M. Bindi, 2013. "Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 825-839, August.
    4. E. Briche & G. Beltrando & S. Somot & H. Quenol, 2014. "Critical analysis of simulated daily temperature data from the ARPEGE-climate model: application to climate change in the Champagne wine-producing region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(2), pages 241-254, March.
    5. Quiroga, Sonia & Iglesias, Ana, 2009. "A comparison of the climate risks of cereal, citrus, grapevine and olive production in Spain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 101(1-2), pages 91-100, June.
    6. Olivier Deschenes & Charles Kolstad, 2011. "Economic impacts of climate change on California agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 365-386, December.
    7. Chi‐Chung Chen & Ching‐Cheng Chang, 2005. "The impact of weather on crop yield distribution in Taiwan: some new evidence from panel data models and implications for crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(s3), pages 503-511, November.
    8. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Economics in the Backyard: How Much Convergence is there between China and her Special Regions?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(6), pages 819-861, June.
    9. Bouman, B. A. M. & van Keulen, H. & van Laar, H. H. & Rabbinge, R., 1996. "The `School of de Wit' crop growth simulation models: A pedigree and historical overview," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 52(2-3), pages 171-198.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mario Cunha & Christian Richter, 2018. "Impact Of Climate Dynamics On Cyclical Properties Of Wine Production In Douro Region Using A Time-Frequency Approach," Working Papers 47, The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology.
    2. Paolo Agnolucci & Vincenzo De Lipsis, 2020. "Long-run trend in agricultural yield and climatic factors in Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 385-405, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mario Cunha & Christian Richter, 2018. "Impact Of Climate Dynamics On Cyclical Properties Of Wine Production In Douro Region Using A Time-Frequency Approach," Working Papers 47, The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology.
    2. Mario Cunha, 2010. "Modelling the Cyclical Behaviour of Wine Production in the Douro Region Using a Time-Varying Parameters Approach," Working Papers 2010.1, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    3. Heiko Paeth & Daniel Schönbein & Luzia Keupp & Daniel Abel & Freddy Bangelesa & Miriam Baumann & Christian Büdel & Christian Hartmann & Christof Kneisel & Konstantin Kobs & Julian Krause & Martin Krec, 2023. "Climate change information tailored to the agricultural sector in Central Europe, exemplified on the region of Lower Franconia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-24, October.
    4. Bonfante, A. & Alfieri, S.M. & Albrizio, R. & Basile, A. & De Mascellis, R. & Gambuti, A. & Giorio, P. & Langella, G. & Manna, P. & Monaco, E. & Moio, L. & Terribile, F., 2017. "Evaluation of the effects of future climate change on grape quality through a physically based model application: a case study for the Aglianico grapevine in Campania region, Italy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 100-109.
    5. Lamonaca, Emilia & Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Seccia, Antonio, 2021. "Climate changes and new productive dynamics in the global wine sector," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 10(2), April.
    6. Wienand Kölle & Andrea Martínez Salgueiro & Matthias Buchholz & Oliver Musshoff, 2021. "Can satellite‐based weather index insurance improve the hedging of yield risk of perennial non‐irrigated olive trees in Spain?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(1), pages 66-93, January.
    7. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 2020. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899, May.
    8. J. Santos & S. Grätsch & M. Karremann & G. Jones & J. Pinto, 2013. "Ensemble projections for wine production in the Douro Valley of Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 211-225, March.
    9. Spencer, Nekeisha & Polachek, Solomon, 2015. "Hurricane watch: Battening down the effects of the storm on local crop production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 234-240.
    10. Samira Shayanmehr & Shida Rastegari Henneberry & Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni & Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani, 2020. "Climate Change and Sustainability of Crop Yield in Dry Regions Food Insecurity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-24, November.
    11. Kung, Chih-Chun & McCarl, Bruce A. & Cao, Xiaoyong, 2013. "Economics of pyrolysis-based energy production and biochar utilization: A case study in Taiwan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 317-323.
    12. Amber Kerr & Jake Dialesandro & Kerri Steenwerth & Nathan Lopez-Brody & Emile Elias, 2018. "Vulnerability of California specialty crops to projected mid-century temperature changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 419-436, June.
    13. Juan J. Cubillas & María I. Ramos & Juan M. Jurado & Francisco R. Feito, 2022. "A Machine Learning Model for Early Prediction of Crop Yield, Nested in a Web Application in the Cloud: A Case Study in an Olive Grove in Southern Spain," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-26, August.
    14. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    15. Loïc Henry, 2023. "Adapting the designated area of geographical indications to climate change," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(4), pages 1088-1115, August.
    16. Richard C.K. Burdekin & Yijing Shen & Hsin- hui I.H. Whited, 2013. "Cross- Strait linkages: historica perspective and empirical evidence," Chapters, in: Peter C.Y. Chow (ed.), Economic Integration Across the Taiwan Strait, chapter 1, pages 1-29, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Lescourret, F. & Blecher, N. & Habib, R. & Chadoeuf, J. & Agostini, D. & Pailly, O. & Vaissiere, B. & Poggi, I., 1999. "Development of a simulation model for studying kiwi fruit orchard management," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 215-239, February.
    18. Ramsey, A. Ford & Tack, Jesse B. & Balota, Maria, 2021. "Double or Nothing: Impacts of Warming on Crop Quantity, Quality, and Revenue," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(1), January.
    19. Li, Sheng & Nadolnyak, Denis & Hartarska, Valentina, 2019. "Agricultural land conversion: Impacts of economic and natural risk factors in a coastal area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 380-390.
    20. Adam, M. & Wery, J. & Leffelaar, P.A. & Ewert, F. & Corbeels, M. & Van Keulen, H., 2013. "A systematic approach for re-assembly of crop models: An example to simulate pea growth from wheat growth," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 258-268.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1719-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.