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Global Projection of Lead-Zinc Supply from Known Resources

Author

Listed:
  • Steve Mohr

    (Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, 235 Jones St, Ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia)

  • Damien Giurco

    (Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, 235 Jones St, Ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia)

  • Monique Retamal

    (Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, 235 Jones St, Ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia)

  • Leah Mason

    (Independent Scholar, Sitka, AK 99835, USA)

  • Gavin Mudd

    (Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, RMIT University, Melbourne City Campus, 124 La Trobe St, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia)

Abstract

Lead and zinc are used extensively in the construction and automotive industries, and require sustainable supply. In order to understand the future availability of lead and zinc, we have projected global supplies on a country-by-country basis from a detailed global assessment of mineral resources for 2013. The model GeRS-DeMo was used to create projections of lead and zinc production from ores, as well as recycling for lead. Our modelling suggests that lead and zinc production from known resources is set to peak within 15 years (lead 2025, zinc 2031). For lead, the total supply declines relatively slowly post peak due to recycling. If additional resources are found, these peaks would shift further into the future. These results suggest that lead and zinc consumers will need to plan for the future, potentially by: seeking alternative supplies (e.g., mine tailings, smelter/refinery slags); obtaining additional value from critical metals contained in lead-zinc ore deposits to counter lower grade ores; identifying potential substitutes; redesigning their products; or by contributing to the development of recycling industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Steve Mohr & Damien Giurco & Monique Retamal & Leah Mason & Gavin Mudd, 2018. "Global Projection of Lead-Zinc Supply from Known Resources," Resources, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jresou:v:7:y:2018:i:1:p:17-:d:133902
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Saleem H. Ali & Damien Giurco & Nicholas Arndt & Edmund Nickless & Graham Brown & Alecos Demetriades & Ray Durrheim & Maria Amélia Enriquez & Judith Kinnaird & Anna Littleboy & Lawrence D. Meinert & R, 2017. "Mineral supply for sustainable development requires resource governance," Nature, Nature, vol. 543(7645), pages 367-372, March.
    2. Tilton, John E. & Lagos, Gustavo, 2007. "Assessing the long-run availability of copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 19-23.
    3. Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M., 2011. "Long term forecasting of natural gas production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5550-5560, September.
    4. Lawrence D. Meinert & Gilpin R. Robinson & Nedal T. Nassar, 2016. "Mineral Resources: Reserves, Peak Production and the Future," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, February.
    5. Mudd, Gavin M., 2010. "The Environmental sustainability of mining in Australia: key mega-trends and looming constraints," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 98-115, June.
    6. Saleem H. Ali & Damien Giurco & Nicholas Arndt & Edmund Nickless & Graham Brown & Alecos Demetriades & Ray Durrheim & Maria Amélia Enriquez & Judith Kinnaird & Anna Littleboy & Lawrence D. Meinert & R, 2017. "Correction: Corrigendum: Mineral supply for sustainable development requires resource governance," Nature, Nature, vol. 547(7662), pages 246-246, July.
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    1. Olabi, A.G. & Wilberforce, Tabbi & Sayed, Enas Taha & Abo-Khalil, Ahmed G. & Maghrabie, Hussein M. & Elsaid, Khaled & Abdelkareem, Mohammad Ali, 2022. "Battery energy storage systems and SWOT (strengths, weakness, opportunities, and threats) analysis of batteries in power transmission," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).

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