IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jresou/v7y2018i1p17-d133902.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global Projection of Lead-Zinc Supply from Known Resources

Author

Listed:
  • Steve Mohr

    (Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, 235 Jones St, Ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia)

  • Damien Giurco

    (Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, 235 Jones St, Ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia)

  • Monique Retamal

    (Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, 235 Jones St, Ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia)

  • Leah Mason

    (Independent Scholar, Sitka, AK 99835, USA)

  • Gavin Mudd

    (Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, RMIT University, Melbourne City Campus, 124 La Trobe St, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia)

Abstract

Lead and zinc are used extensively in the construction and automotive industries, and require sustainable supply. In order to understand the future availability of lead and zinc, we have projected global supplies on a country-by-country basis from a detailed global assessment of mineral resources for 2013. The model GeRS-DeMo was used to create projections of lead and zinc production from ores, as well as recycling for lead. Our modelling suggests that lead and zinc production from known resources is set to peak within 15 years (lead 2025, zinc 2031). For lead, the total supply declines relatively slowly post peak due to recycling. If additional resources are found, these peaks would shift further into the future. These results suggest that lead and zinc consumers will need to plan for the future, potentially by: seeking alternative supplies (e.g., mine tailings, smelter/refinery slags); obtaining additional value from critical metals contained in lead-zinc ore deposits to counter lower grade ores; identifying potential substitutes; redesigning their products; or by contributing to the development of recycling industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Steve Mohr & Damien Giurco & Monique Retamal & Leah Mason & Gavin Mudd, 2018. "Global Projection of Lead-Zinc Supply from Known Resources," Resources, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jresou:v:7:y:2018:i:1:p:17-:d:133902
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/7/1/17/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/7/1/17/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saleem H. Ali & Damien Giurco & Nicholas Arndt & Edmund Nickless & Graham Brown & Alecos Demetriades & Ray Durrheim & Maria Amélia Enriquez & Judith Kinnaird & Anna Littleboy & Lawrence D. Meinert & R, 2017. "Mineral supply for sustainable development requires resource governance," Nature, Nature, vol. 543(7645), pages 367-372, March.
    2. Tilton, John E. & Lagos, Gustavo, 2007. "Assessing the long-run availability of copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 19-23.
    3. Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M., 2011. "Long term forecasting of natural gas production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5550-5560, September.
    4. Lawrence D. Meinert & Gilpin R. Robinson & Nedal T. Nassar, 2016. "Mineral Resources: Reserves, Peak Production and the Future," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, February.
    5. Mudd, Gavin M., 2010. "The Environmental sustainability of mining in Australia: key mega-trends and looming constraints," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 98-115, June.
    6. Saleem H. Ali & Damien Giurco & Nicholas Arndt & Edmund Nickless & Graham Brown & Alecos Demetriades & Ray Durrheim & Maria Amélia Enriquez & Judith Kinnaird & Anna Littleboy & Lawrence D. Meinert & R, 2017. "Correction: Corrigendum: Mineral supply for sustainable development requires resource governance," Nature, Nature, vol. 547(7662), pages 246-246, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olabi, A.G. & Wilberforce, Tabbi & Sayed, Enas Taha & Abo-Khalil, Ahmed G. & Maghrabie, Hussein M. & Elsaid, Khaled & Abdelkareem, Mohammad Ali, 2022. "Battery energy storage systems and SWOT (strengths, weakness, opportunities, and threats) analysis of batteries in power transmission," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Endl, Andreas & Tost, Michael & Hitch, Michael & Moser, Peter & Feiel, Susanne, 2021. "Europe's mining innovation trends and their contribution to the sustainable development goals: Blind spots and strong points," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Guzmán, Juan Ignacio & Karpunina, Alina & Araya, Constanza & Faúndez, Patricio & Bocchetto, Marcela & Camacho, Rodolfo & Desormeaux, Daniela & Galaz, Juanita & Garcés, Ingrid & Kracht, Willy & Lagos, , 2023. "Chile: On the road to global sustainable mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Friedrich-W. Wellmer & Marius Kern, 2024. "The dynamics and long-term availability of the total resources from the geosphere and technosphere—re-examined," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 37(2), pages 227-244, June.
    4. Northey, S. & Mohr, S. & Mudd, G.M. & Weng, Z. & Giurco, D., 2014. "Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 190-201.
    5. Hunt, C. & Romero, J. & Jara, J. & Lagos, G., 2021. "Copper demand forecasts and predictions of future scarcity," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Larona S. Teseletso & Tsuyoshi Adachi, 2022. "Long-Term Sustainability of Copper and Iron Based on a System Dynamics Model," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, April.
    7. Rivera, Nilza & Guzmán, Juan Ignacio & Jara, José Joaquín & Lagos, Gustavo, 2021. "Evaluation of econometric models of secondary refined copper supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Song, Huiling & Wang, Chang & Lei, Xiaojie & Zhang, Hongwei, 2022. "Dynamic dependence between main-byproduct metals and the role of clean energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    9. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & Tukker, Arnold & van der Voet, Ester, 2022. "Material requirements for low-carbon energy technologies: A quantitative review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    10. Le Boulzec, Hugo & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Verzier, François & Vidal, Olivier & Mathy, Sandrine, 2022. "Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    11. Tomer Fishman & Rupert J. Myers & Orlando Rios & T.E. Graedel, 2018. "Implications of Emerging Vehicle Technologies on Rare Earth Supply and Demand in the United States," Resources, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, January.
    12. Dino, Giovanna Antonella & Cavallo, Alessandro & Faraudello, Alessandra & Piercarlo, Rossi & Mancini, Susanna, 2021. "Raw materials supply: Kaolin and quartz from ore deposits and recycling activities. The example of the Monte Bracco area (Piedmont, Northern Italy)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. János Szanyi & Ladislaus Rybach & Hawkar A. Abdulhaq, 2023. "Geothermal Energy and Its Potential for Critical Metal Extraction—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-28, October.
    14. Zhong, Qiumeng & Zhang, Zhihe & Wang, Heming & Zhang, Xu & Wang, Yao & Wang, Peng & Ma, Fengmei & Yue, Qiang & Du, Tao & Chen, Wei-Qiang & Liang, Sai, 2023. "Incorporating scarcity into footprints reveals diverse supply chain hotspots for global fossil fuel management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    15. Alessandro Cavallo & Giovanna Antonella Dino, 2022. "Extractive Waste as a Resource: Quartz, Feldspars, and Rare Earth Elements from Gneiss Quarries of the Verbano-Cusio-Ossola Province (Piedmont, Northern Italy)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-15, April.
    16. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir, 2018. "A System Dynamics Model Assessment of the Supply of Niobium and Tantalum Using the WORLD6 Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-35, June.
    17. Dou Shiquan & Xu Deyi, 2023. "The security of critical mineral supply chains," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(3), pages 401-412, September.
    18. Zhang, Jintao & Su, Taoyong & Meng, Li, 2024. "Corporate earnings management strategy under environmental regulation: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 154-166.
    19. Margarita N. Ignatyeva & Vera V. Yurak & Alexey V. Dushin & Irina G. Polyanskaya, 2021. "Assessing challenges and threats for balanced subsoil use," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(12), pages 17904-17922, December.
    20. Elisabeth Christen & Klaus S. Friesenbichler & Alexander Hudetz & Claudia Kettner-Marx & Ina Meyer & Franz Sinabell, 2021. "Außenhandel und nachhaltige Entwicklung in Österreich. Befunde auf der Grundlage von vorliegenden Quellen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 69290, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jresou:v:7:y:2018:i:1:p:17-:d:133902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.