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Estimating Shadow Economy Size in Greece 2000 - 2018: A Flexible MIMIC Approach

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  • Paraskevi Koufopoulou

    (School of Economics, Business & International Studies, University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece)

  • Colin C. Williams

    (Professor of Public Policy, Management School, Sheffield University, Sheffield, UK)

  • Athanassios Vozikis

    (Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Director at Laboratory of Health Economics & Management, School of Economics, Business & International Studies, University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece.)

  • Kyriakos Souliotis

    (Professor, Department of Social & Educational Policy, School of Social & Political Sciences, University of Peloponnese, Corinth, Greece.)

  • Antonios Samprakos

    (PhD (c), Department of Business Administration, School of Economics, Business & International Studies, University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece)

Abstract

Greek economy suffers from economic crisis for over a decade. A continuing problem has been the persistence of a large shadow economy which results in a gap between the tax and social security contribution owed and collected. In this paper, the size of shadow economy (SE) in Greece is estimated using a flexible MIMIC approach with time series data from 2000 to 2018. Our variables focused on instead of in most representative data of the Greek economy as causes (e.g. unemployment, self–employment, epidemic etc.) and indicators (official economy, energy consumption, income inequality and poverty, labour force participation). We found that the average size of shadow economy in Greece was up to 37.63% for the reference period, above the average size of other studies up to 23.35%. The study focuses on the significance of each determinant of the shadow economy, resulting in an improved estimation method to identify and tackle shadow transactions and increase public revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • Paraskevi Koufopoulou & Colin C. Williams & Athanassios Vozikis & Kyriakos Souliotis & Antonios Samprakos, 2021. "Estimating Shadow Economy Size in Greece 2000 - 2018: A Flexible MIMIC Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 71(3-4), pages 23-47, July-Dece.
  • Handle: RePEc:spd:journl:v:71:y:2021:i:3-4:p:23-47
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    Cited by:

    1. Colin C. Williams, 2023. "A Modern Guide to the Informal Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18668.
    2. Óscar Afonso & Nuno Torres, 2024. "Portugal's Rising Unobserved Economy Share in a Single-country Study," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(5), pages 565-598.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greek economy; shadow economy; estimation; flexible MIMIC Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy

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