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Does the shadow economy mitigate the effect of cashless payment technology on currency demand? dynamic panel evidence

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  • Paul Marmora
  • Brenden J. Mason

Abstract

Recent government attempts at reducing currency demand by promoting cashless payment technology, e.g., subsidies for point-of-sale terminals, have met with mixed success. In this paper, we argue that one reason is the shadow economy: as the size of the unrecorded economy grows, cashless payment technology has a weaker effect on the demand for cash. To test this hypothesis, we analyse a panel of 37 countries over the years 2004–2014 including data on point-of-sale terminals, financial cards in circulation, and the value of total card payments. Using the first principal component of these variables as a proxy for cashless payment technology, we find that a 1% increase in underground activity lowers the impact of cashless technology on the velocity of currency in circulation by 0.3%. This decrease is large enough that the average marginal effect of cashless technology on currency velocity is statistically insignificant for several high-shadow countries over the sample period. Overall, our results suggest that government subsidization of digital payment infrastructure will be ineffective when shadow markets are prevalent.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Marmora & Brenden J. Mason, 2021. "Does the shadow economy mitigate the effect of cashless payment technology on currency demand? dynamic panel evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(6), pages 703-718, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:53:y:2021:i:6:p:703-718
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1813246
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Colin C. Williams, 2023. "A Modern Guide to the Informal Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18668.
    2. Giammatteo, Michele & Iezzi, Stefano & Zizza, Roberta, 2022. "Pecunia olet. Cash usage and the underground economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 107-127.
    3. Aziz N. Berdiev & Rajeev K. Goel & James W. Saunoris, 2024. "Global cryptocurrency use, corruption, and the shadow economy: New insights into the underlying linkages," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 83(3), pages 609-629, May.
    4. Paraskevi Koufopoulou & Colin C. Williams & Athanassios Vozikis & Kyriakos Souliotis & Antonios Samprakos, 2021. "Estimating Shadow Economy Size in Greece 2000 - 2018: A Flexible MIMIC Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 71(3-4), pages 23-47, July-Dece.
    5. Hakan Yilmazkuday & M. Ege Yazgan, 2009. "Effects of credit and debit cards on the currency demand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(17), pages 2115-2123.

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