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Focal Points, Dissident Calendars, and Preemptive Repression

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  • Rory Truex

Abstract

This article explains temporal variation in repression as a function of the “dissident calendar,†the set of events that serve as natural focal points for coordination. The core argument is that regimes can anticipate the events that create these focal points and engage in preemptive repression to survive their passing. This dynamic produces predictable, often cyclical patterns in repression. An analysis of dissident detentions in China from 1998 to 2014 shows that “focal events†alone appear to be responsible for more than 20 percent of dissident detentions over the analysis period. Such detentions tend to be shorter and rely less on formal criminal procedures, suggesting a “catch-and-release†dynamic. Additional analysis of detentions in Tibet shows how the calendar may vary by issue or group.

Suggested Citation

  • Rory Truex, 2019. "Focal Points, Dissident Calendars, and Preemptive Repression," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(4), pages 1032-1052, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:63:y:2019:i:4:p:1032-1052
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002718770520
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ritter, Emily Hencken & Conrad, Courtenay R., 2016. "Preventing and Responding to Dissent: The Observational Challenges of Explaining Strategic Repression," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 85-99, February.
    2. King, Gary & Pan, Jennifer & Roberts, Margaret E., 2013. "How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 326-343, May.
    3. Christopher M. Sullivan & Cyanne E. Loyle & Christian Davenport, 2012. "The Coercive Weight of the Past: Temporal Dependence and the Conflict-Repression Nexus in the Northern Ireland “Troubles”," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 426-442, September.
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    2. Ryanne Flock, 2024. "Creating the spectacular city in everyday life: A governance analysis of urban public space in China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 61(6), pages 1094-1110, May.

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