IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pubeco/v186y2020ics0047272720300220.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A theory of informational autocracy

Author

Listed:
  • Guriev, Sergei
  • Treisman, Daniel

Abstract

We develop an informational theory of autocracy. Dictators survive not by means of force or ideology but because they convince the public—rightly or wrongly—that they are competent. Citizens do not observe the leader's type but infer it from signals in their living standards, state propaganda, and messages sent by an informed elite via independent media. If citizens conclude that the leader is incompetent, they overthrow him. The dictator can invest in making convincing state propaganda, censoring independent media, co-opting the elite, or equipping police to repress attempted uprisings—but he must finance such spending at the expense of the public's consumption. We show that informational autocracies prevail over old-style, overtly violent dictatorships when the informed elite is sufficiently large but are replaced by democracies when elites are too numerous to be bribed or censored. The theory provides insight into various soft authoritarian regimes around the world and suggests a logic of modernization behind recent global political trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Guriev, Sergei & Treisman, Daniel, 2020. "A theory of informational autocracy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:186:y:2020:i:c:s0047272720300220
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104158
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272720300220
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104158?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107016064, September.
    2. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2019. "Informational Autocrats," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 100-127, Fall.
    3. Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2011. "Dictators And Their Viziers: Endogenizing The Loyalty–Competence Trade‐Off," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(5), pages 903-930, October.
    4. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2015. "How Modern Dictators Survive: Cooptation, Censorship, Propaganda, and Repression," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03473701, HAL.
    5. Filmer, Deon & Rogers, Halsey & Angrist, Noam & Sabarwal, Shwetlena, 2020. "Learning-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS): Defining a new macro measure of education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2014. "Incumbency Advantage in Non-Democracies," NBER Working Papers 20519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107638105, September.
    8. Simpser,Alberto, 2013. "Why Governments and Parties Manipulate Elections," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107030541, September.
    9. Oka, Natsuko, 2009. "Ethnicity and Elections under Authoritarianism: The Case of Kazakhstan," IDE Discussion Papers 194, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    10. Timothy Besley & Andrea Prat, 2006. "Handcuffs for the Grabbing Hand? Media Capture and Government Accountability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 720-736, June.
    11. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422, September.
    12. North, Douglass C. & Weingast, Barry R., 1989. "Constitutions and Commitment: The Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in Seventeenth-Century England," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 803-832, December.
    13. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
    14. King, Gary & Pan, Jennifer & Roberts, Margaret E., 2013. "How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 326-343, May.
    15. James D. Fearon, 2011. "Self-Enforcing Democracy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1661-1708.
    16. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2015. "How Modern Dictators Survive: An Informational Theory of the New Authoritarianism," NBER Working Papers 21136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Egorov, Georgy & Guriev, Sergei & Sonin, Konstantin, 2009. "Why Resource-poor Dictators Allow Freer Media: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(4), pages 645-668, November.
    18. Mehdi Shadmehr & Dan Bernhardt, 2015. "State Censorship," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 280-307, May.
    19. Patrinos,Harry Anthony & Angrist,Noam, 2018. "Global Dataset on Education Quality : A Review and Update (2000-2017)," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8592, The World Bank.
    20. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107016057, September.
    21. Scott Gehlbach & Alberto Simpser, 2015. "Electoral Manipulation as Bureaucratic Control," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(1), pages 212-224, January.
    22. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107674165, September.
    23. Chris Edmond, 2013. "Information Manipulation, Coordination, and Regime Change," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1422-1458.
    24. Coate, Stephen & Morris, Stephen, 1995. "On the Form of Transfers in Special Interests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1210-1235, December.
    25. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107627314, September.
    26. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107016040, September.
    27. Gehlbach, Scott & Keefer, Philip, 2011. "Investment without democracy: Ruling-party institutionalization and credible commitment in autocracies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 123-139, June.
    28. Myerson, Roger B., 2008. "The Autocrat's Credibility Problem and Foundations of the Constitutional State," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 125-139, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2024. "The Political Economics of Non-democracy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 594-636, June.
    2. Ozerturk, Saltuk, 2022. "Media access, bias and public opinion," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Miller, Marcus, 2022. "Deep historical roots, culture choice and the New World Order," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1414, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    4. Felipe González & María Angélica Bautista, & Luis R. Martínez & Pablo Muñoz & Mounu Prem, 2020. "Chile’s Missing Students: Dictatorship, Higher Education and Social Mobility," Documentos de Trabajo 542, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    5. Vakhtang Putkaradze, 2023. "The Dictator Dilemma: The Distortion of Information Flow in Autocratic Regimes and Its Consequences," Papers 2310.01666, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    6. Bautista, María Angélica & González, Felipe & Martinez, Luis R. & Muñoz, Pablo & Prem, Mounu, 2020. "Dictatorship, Higher Education, and Social Mobility," SocArXiv 6st9r, Center for Open Science.
    7. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2019. "Informational Autocrats," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 100-127, Fall.
    8. Hyungmin Park, 2024. "Theory of developmental dictatorship," Discussion Papers 2024-10, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    9. Park, Hyungmin, 2023. "Developmental Dictatorship and Middle Class-driven Democratisation," QAPEC Discussion Papers 20, Quantitative and Analytical Political Economy Research Centre.
    10. Fabio Blasutto & David de la Croix, 2023. "Catholic Censorship and the Demise of Knowledge Production in Early Modern Italy," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(656), pages 2899-2924.
    11. Miller, Marcus & ,, 2021. "Without liberty and justice, what extremes to expect? Two contemporary perspectives," CEPR Discussion Papers 16695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Kun Heo & Antoine Zerbini, 2024. "Segment and rule: Modern censorship in authoritarian regimes," Discussion Papers 2024-04, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    13. David Karpa & Torben Klarl & Michael Rochlitz, 2021. "Artificial Intelligence, Surveillance, and Big Data," Papers 2111.00992, arXiv.org.
    14. Schulze, Günther G. & Zakharov, Nikita, 2023. "Political cycles of media repression," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    15. Kemal Kivanc Akoz & Arseniy Samsonov, 2023. "Bargaining over information structures," Discussion Papers 2301, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Quantitative Social and Management Sciences.
    16. Afiq bin Oslan & Ipek Ece Sener, 2023. "Displacement, Not Obstruction: Why Insecure Leaders Need Not Fear Free Media," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2023-24, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    17. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2021. "Economic liberalization, political regimes and ideology," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 463-487, November.
    18. David Karpa & Torben Klarl & Michael Rochlitz, 2021. "Artificial Intelligence, Surveillance, and Big Data," Bremen Papers on Economics & Innovation 2108, University of Bremen, Faculty of Business Studies and Economics.
    19. Choy, James P., 2020. "Kompromat: A theory of blackmail as a system of governance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simeon Alder & Guillermo Ordonez, 2016. "Deceptive Redistribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 223-239, October.
    2. David Strömberg, 2015. "Media and Politics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 173-205, August.
    3. Ananyev, Maxim & Poyker, Michael, 2022. "Do dictators signal strength with electoral fraud?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Adam Szeidl & Ferenc Szucs, 2021. "Media Capture Through Favor Exchange," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 281-310, January.
    5. Simeon Alder & Guillermo Ordonez, 2016. "Deceptive Redistribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 223-239, October.
    6. Ruben Durante & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2018. "Attack When the World Is Not Watching? US News and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 1085-1133.
    7. Di Gioacchino, Debora & Verashchagina, Alina, 2020. "Mass media and preferences for redistribution," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Antony Millner & Hélène Ollivier, 2016. "Beliefs, Politics, and Environmental Policy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(2), pages 226-244.
    9. Alaoui, Larbi & Germano, Fabrizio, 2020. "Time scarcity and the market for news," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 173-195.
    10. Saori Ihara & Yukihiro Yazaki, 2017. "Determinants of Public Service Broadcasting Size," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 129-151, May.
    11. Jacopo Perego & Sevgi Yuksel, 2022. "Media Competition and Social Disagreement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(1), pages 223-265, January.
    12. Ruben Durante & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2015. "Attack When the World is Not Watching? International Media and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict," Working Papers hal-03459981, HAL.
    13. Alejandro Castañeda & César Martinelli, 2018. "Politics, entertainment and business: a multisided model of media," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 239-256, March.
    14. Edmond, Chris & Lu, Yang K., 2021. "Creating confusion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6l0phu0dat8eg98t75kpqihcid is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Maxime Menuet & Patrick Villieu, 2021. "Reputation and the “need for enemies”," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 72(4), pages 1049-1089, November.
    17. Alejandro Castañeda & Cesar Martinelli, 2015. "Political Economics of Broadcast Media," Working Papers 1055, George Mason University, Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science.
    18. Toshihiko Mukoyama & Latchezar Popov, 2020. "Industrialization and the evolution of enforcement institutions," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 69(3), pages 745-788, April.
    19. Yukihiro Yazaki, 2017. "Newspapers and political accountability: evidence from Japan," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 311-331, September.
    20. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6l0phu0dat8eg98t75kpqihcid is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Andrew T Little, 2017. "Are non-competitive elections good for citizens?," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 29(2), pages 214-242, April.
    22. Miura, Shintaro, 2019. "Manipulated news model: Electoral competition and mass media," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 306-338.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:186:y:2020:i:c:s0047272720300220. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.