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Regional Economic Voting In Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Jula, Dorin

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy and Ecological University of Bucharest – Economic Sciences Faculty)

  • Jula, Nicolae Marius

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy and Ecological University of Bucharest – Economic Sciences Faculty)

Abstract

In the paper we examine the economic voting theory for the Romanian local elections in June, 2008. Econometrically, we demonstrate that in the regional structures the main economic variables (dynamics of the gross domestic product per capita, rate of unemployment, dynamics of the average net nominal monthly earnings, etc.) do not significantly influence the voting behaviour, so that a model based on the esponsibility hypothesis is not adequate for explaining the creation of voting preferences in the Romanian regional structures in the June 2008 elections. We also demonstrate that for the June 2008 local elections the hypothesis of partisan voting cannot be econometrically supported. As a consequence, we have conceived a political impact model. Therefore, we have tested the hypothesis of faithful voters between two consecutive electoral moments, the engine role played by the well-known leaders, and the impact of the ethnic behaviour on the electoral space of the political party.

Suggested Citation

  • Jula, Dorin & Jula, Nicolae Marius, 2009. "Regional Economic Voting In Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 5-15, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:1:p:5-15
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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_09/rjef1_09_1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2008. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Base Scenario for 2008," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 193-195, March.
    2. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. "The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-245, June.
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    5. Caraiani, Petre, 2007. "An Analysis of the Fluctuations in the Romanian Economy using the Real Business Cycles Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(2), pages 76-86, June.
    6. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Trends in Structural Changes and Convergence in EU," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 91-101, March.
    7. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2008. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Autumn Forecast," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(3), pages 129-131, September.
    8. Cameron D. Anderson, 2006. "Economic Voting and Multilevel Governance: A Comparative Individual‐Level Analysis," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(2), pages 449-463, April.
    9. Bornier Jean Magnan de & Norpoth H. & Lewis-Beck M.S. & Lafay J.D., 1991. "Economics and Politics The calculus of support," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 579-581, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jula, Dorin & Jula, Nicolae Marius, 2013. "Economic Growth and Structural Changes in Regional EmploymenT," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 52-69, June.
    2. Nicolae Marius Jula, 2012. "Modelling Of Voting Behaviour In Romania," New Trends in Modelling and Economic Forecast (MEF 2011), ROMANIAN ACADEMY – INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC FORECASTING;"Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 121-139, January.
    3. Nicolae-Marius JULA, 2010. "Regional Analyses Of Voting Behaviour In Romania –Local, General And Presidential Elections," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 4(2), pages 62-77, DECEMBER.
    4. Dorin Jula & Nicolae-Marius Jula, 2011. "Analysis of Municipal Election Outcomes in Romania," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1256, European Regional Science Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political Business Cycles; Vote Popularity Function; Partisan and/or Opportunistic Behaviour; Residuals in Regional Econometric Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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