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The "Dobrescu Macromodel" Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Autumn Forecast

Author

Listed:
  • Pauna, Bianca

    (National Institute of Economic Research, Romanian Academy)

  • Ghizdeanu, Ion

    (National Commission for Prognosis)

  • Scutaru, Cornelia

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Fomin, Petre

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Saman, Corina

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

In this article we present only the economic forecast of the variable of interest. For a description of the model, see RJEF, No. 1/2007 of [4]. The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2008. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Autumn Forecast," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(3), pages 129-131, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:3:p:129-131
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emilian Dobrescu, 2006. "Integration of Macroeconomic Behavioural Relationships and the Input-output Block (Romanian Modelling Experience)," EcoMod2006 272100018, EcoMod.
    2. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Emilian Dobrescu, 2014. "Attempting to Quantify the Accuracy of Complex Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-21, December.
    2. Macomodel of the Romanian Market Economy Group (Cornelia Scutaru, Ion Ghizdeanu, Lucian Liviu Albu, Bianca Pauna, Corina Saman), 2009. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version* Yearly Forecast - Spring Forecast 2009," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 155-159, March.
    3. Jula, Dorin & Jula, Nicolae Marius, 2009. "Regional Economic Voting In Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 5-15, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    model; input-output analysis; econometric relationships; simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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