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The "Dobrescu Macromodel" Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version* Yearly Forecast - Spring Forecast 2009

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  • Macomodel of the Romanian Market Economy Group (Cornelia Scutaru, Ion Ghizdeanu, Lucian Liviu Albu, Bianca Pauna, Corina Saman)

Abstract

The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy. In this article we present three scenarios for 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Macomodel of the Romanian Market Economy Group (Cornelia Scutaru, Ion Ghizdeanu, Lucian Liviu Albu, Bianca Pauna, Corina Saman), 2009. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version* Yearly Forecast - Spring Forecast 2009," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 155-159, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:1:p:155-159
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2007. "The "Dobrescu" Macromodel Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(1), pages 115-125, March.
    2. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2008. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Base Scenario for 2008," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 193-195, March.
    3. Emilian Dobrescu, 2006. "Integration of Macroeconomic Behavioural Relationships and the Input-output Block (Romanian Modelling Experience)," EcoMod2006 272100018, EcoMod.
    4. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2008. "A Desirable Scenario For The Romanian Economy During 2008-2013," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 15-58, December.
    5. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2008. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Autumn Forecast," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(3), pages 129-131, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    model; input-output analysis; econometric relationships; simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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