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Economic Expectations and Voting Behavior in United States House and Senate Elections

Author

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  • Kuklinski, James H.
  • West, Darrell M.

Abstract

Past individual-level studies of economic voting (1) have incorrectly operationalized the model they employ by using past-oriented rather than future-oriented questions and (2) have failed to examine the level of economic voting in United States Senate elections. Using the 1978 National Election Study, we show that economic voting exists in Senate but not House elections, presumably due to the differences in electoral context. Even when economic voting occurs, however, there is no guarantee that the public will influence the direction of macroeconomic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuklinski, James H. & West, Darrell M., 1981. "Economic Expectations and Voting Behavior in United States House and Senate Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 436-447, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:75:y:1981:i:02:p:436-447_17
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    Cited by:

    1. Jason Barabas, 1998. "Wage Erosion, Economic Assessments, and Social Welfare Opinions," JCPR Working Papers 56, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    2. repec:fip:a00001:94154 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Eric Dubois & François Facchini & Martial Foucault & Abel François, 2009. "Un modèle explicatif du vote FNSEA aux élections des représentants des chefs d'exploitation aux Chambres d'Agriculture départementales (1995-2001)," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00800701, HAL.
    4. Larry D. Wall, 2021. "So Far, So Good: Government Insurance of Financial Sector Tail Risk," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2021(13), November.
    5. Nicoleta Jula & Nicolae-Marius Jula, 2013. "Econometric Evidences of Political Business Cycles in Romania during the socialist regime and after," Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 64-69, Ianuary.
    6. Alnahedh, Saad & Alhashel, Bader, 2024. "Firm executive political leanings, Washington, and stock market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 476-491.
    7. Jula, Dorin & Jula, Nicolae Marius, 2009. "Regional Economic Voting In Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 5-15, March.
    8. Gary Zuk & Nancy R. Woodbury, 1986. "U.S. Defense Spending, Electoral Cycles, and Soviet-American Relations," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(3), pages 445-468, September.
    9. Halberstam, Yosh & Montagnes, B. Pablo, 2015. "Presidential coattails versus the median voter: Senator selection in US elections," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 40-51.
    10. Graziano Vernizzi & Miki Nakai, 2015. "A Geometrical Framework for Covariance Matrices of Continuous and Categorical Variables," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 44(1), pages 48-79, February.
    11. Eric Dubois & Sonia Paty, 2010. "Yardstick competition: which neighbours matter?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 44(3), pages 433-452, June.
    12. Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter, 2019. "Var det fortsat ”the economy, stupid!” i 2016 og 2018? [Was it still "the economy, stupid!" in 2016 and 2018?]," MPRA Paper 97297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Zhang, Junyi, 2014. "Revisiting residential self-selection issues: A life-oriented approach," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 7(3), pages 29-45.
    14. Zhang, Junyi & Yu, Biying & Chikaraishi, Makoto, 2014. "Interdependences between household residential and car ownership behavior: a life history analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 165-174.

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