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The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Autumn Forecast 2011, September Estimate

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  • Institute for Economic Forecasting
  • Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling

Abstract

The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilization of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioral functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately naming this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy. In this article we present the Autumn forecast for 2011.

Suggested Citation

  • Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Autumn Forecast 2011, September Estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 267-269, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:3:p:267-269
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2007. "The "Dobrescu" Macromodel Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(1), pages 115-125, March.
    2. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2010. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast - Spring Forecast 2010," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 215-217, March.
    3. Emilian Dobrescu, 2006. "Integration of Macroeconomic Behavioural Relationships and the Input-output Block (Romanian Modelling Experience)," EcoMod2006 272100018, EcoMod.
    4. Institute for Economic Forecasting, 2009. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Summer Forecast 2009," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 200-203, June.
    5. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2008. "A Desirable Scenario For The Romanian Economy During 2008-2013," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 15-58, December.
    6. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2007. "The "DOBRESCU” Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy* - 2005 version - Yearly Forecast - actualised scenario," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(2), pages 118-123, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu), 2014. "The Performance of Predictions Based on the Dobrescu Macromodel for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 179-195, October.
    2. Andrei, Dalina Maria, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investments in Romania. A Structural and Dynamic View," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 129-146, December.
    3. Stanica, Cristian Nicolae, 2011. "Modeling Government Policies used for Sustaining Economic Growth in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 90-105, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    model; input-output analysis; econometric relationships; simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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