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The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy* -2005 Version-Yearly Forecast Scenario for “Increase in foreign capital inflows”

Author

Listed:
  • Pauna, Bianca

    (National Institute of Economic Research, Romanian Academy)

  • Ghizdeanu, Ion

    (National Commission for Prognosis)

  • Scutaru, Cornelia

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Fomin, Petre

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Saman, Corina

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

In this article we present only the economic forecast of the variable of interest. For a description of the model, see RJEF, No. 1/2007 of [4]. The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2008. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy* -2005 Version-Yearly Forecast Scenario for “Increase in foreign capital inflows”," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 129-131, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:2:p:129-131
    as

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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_08/rjef2_08_9.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emilian Dobrescu, 2006. "Integration of Macroeconomic Behavioural Relationships and the Input-output Block (Romanian Modelling Experience)," EcoMod2006 272100018, EcoMod.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    model; input-output analysis; econometric relationships; simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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