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Macromodel Simulations for the Romanian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Dobrescu, Emilian

    (National Institute for Economic Research – Macroeconomic Modelling Center, Member of the Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The paper revises the previous author’s estimates of the medium-term evolution of the Romanian economy. It is organized in three chapters. The first examines the most important crisis and post-crisis problems of Romania. The analysis is developed preponderantly from a structural point of view. The second chapter presents three simulated scenarios for the period 2010-2014. One of them (named the Base Scenario BSc) is conceived with macroeconomic parameters close to those envisaged by Government, in correlation with the IMF stand-by Agreement. The other two (the Worsened Scenarios W1Sc and W2Sc) admit less favorable domestic and external business environment. In the final chapter, the results of simulations are compared to each other and also to the officially accepted forecasting documents. Some former similar predictions (anticipating more optimistic indicators) are discussed from the modeling perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Dobrescu, Emilian, 2010. "Macromodel Simulations for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 7-28, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:2:p:7-28
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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_10/rjef2_10_1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    3. Miguel Almunia & Agustín Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O’Rourke & Gisela Rua, 2010. "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: similarities, differences and lessons [Germany: Guns, butter, and economic miracles]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 219-265.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen, 2008. "Reflections on the International Dimensions and Policy Lessons of the U.S. Subprime Crisis," MPRA Paper 11863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Stijn Claessens, 2010. "The Financial Crisis," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 177-196, May.
    6. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Double-Conditioned Potential Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(1), pages 32-50, March.
    8. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2008. "A Desirable Scenario For The Romanian Economy During 2008-2013," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 15-58, December.
    9. Claessens, Stijn & Ayhan Kose, M. & Terrones, Marco E., 2010. "The global financial crisis: How similar? How different? How costly?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 247-264, June.
    10. Dobrescu, Emilian & Pauna, Bianca, 2007. "Stochastic simulations on the Romanian macroeconomic model," MPRA Paper 35723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ciuiu, Daniel, 2013. "Qualitative variables and their reduction possibility. Application to time series models," MPRA Paper 59284, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2013.
    2. Amalia Cristescu & Maria Denisa Vasilescu & Larisa Stanila & Madalina Ecaterina Popescu, 2013. "Regional Analysis Of The Real Earnings In Romania," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-78, DECEMBER.
    3. Andrei, Dalina Maria, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investments in Romania. A Structural and Dynamic View," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 129-146, December.
    4. Stanica, Cristian Nicolae, 2011. "Modeling Government Policies used for Sustaining Economic Growth in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 90-105, December.
    5. Iancu, Aurel, 2013. "Financialisation: Structure, Extent, Consequences," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 172-192, June.
    6. Andreica, Madalina Ecaterina & Andreica, Marin, 2014. "Forecast of Romanian Industry Employment using Simulation and Panel Data Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 130-140, June.
    7. Stanica, Cristian Nicolae, 2013. "Using a Macroeconomic Model to Check Forecast Consistency," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 119-135, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macromodel; input-output analysis; simulation; scenario; crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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