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Modelling aerosol-based exposure to SARS-CoV-2 by an agent based Monte Carlo method: Risk estimates in a shop and bar

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  • Henri Salmenjoki
  • Marko Korhonen
  • Antti Puisto
  • Ville Vuorinen
  • Mikko J Alava

Abstract

Present day risk assessment on the spreading of airborne viruses is often based on the classical Wells-Riley model assuming immediate mixing of the aerosol into the studied environment. Here, we improve on this approach and the underlying assumptions by modeling the space-time dependency of the aerosol concentration via a transport equation with a dynamic source term introduced by the infected individual(s). In the present agent-based methodology, we study the viral aerosol inhalation exposure risk in two scenarios including a low/high risk scenario of a “supermarket”/“bar”. The model takes into account typical behavioral patterns for determining the rules of motion for the agents. We solve a diffusion model for aerosol concentration in the prescribed environments in order to account for local exposure to aerosol inhalation. We assess the infection risk using the Wells-Riley model formula using a space-time dependent aerosol concentration. The results are compared against the classical Wells-Riley model. The results indicate features that explain individual cases of high risk with repeated sampling of a heterogeneous environment occupied by non-equilibrium concentration clouds. An example is the relative frequency of cases that might be called superspreading events depending on the model parameters. A simple interpretation is that averages of infection risk are often misleading. They also point out and explain the qualitative and quantitative difference between the two cases—shopping is typically safer for a single individual person.

Suggested Citation

  • Henri Salmenjoki & Marko Korhonen & Antti Puisto & Ville Vuorinen & Mikko J Alava, 2021. "Modelling aerosol-based exposure to SARS-CoV-2 by an agent based Monte Carlo method: Risk estimates in a shop and bar," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-12, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0260237
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260237
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jos Lelieveld & Frank Helleis & Stephan Borrmann & Yafang Cheng & Frank Drewnick & Gerald Haug & Thomas Klimach & Jean Sciare & Hang Su & Ulrich Pöschl, 2020. "Model Calculations of Aerosol Transmission and Infection Risk of COVID-19 in Indoor Environments," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Wolfgang Schade & Vladislav Reimer & Martin Seipenbusch & Ulrike Willer, 2021. "Experimental Investigation of Aerosol and CO 2 Dispersion for Evaluation of COVID-19 Infection Risk in a Concert Hall," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-11, March.
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