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Social Efficiency of Public Transportation Policy in Response to COVID-19: Model Development and Application to Intercity Buses in Seoul Metropolitan Area

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  • Junsik Park

    (Korea Transport Institute, 370 Sicheong-daero, Sejong-si 30147, Korea)

  • Gurjoong Kim

    (Korea Transport Institute, 370 Sicheong-daero, Sejong-si 30147, Korea)

Abstract

Although more than two years have passed since the appearance of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), few policies on public transportation have been implemented to reduce its spread. It is common knowledge that public transportation is vulnerable to COVID-19, but it has not been easy to formulate an appropriate public transportation policy based on a valid rationale. In this study, a modified SEIHR model was developed to evaluate the socioeconomic effects of public transportation policies. By applying the developed model to intercity buses in the Seoul metropolitan area, the socioeconomic efficiency of the policy of reducing the number of passengers was evaluated. The analysis showed that the optimal number of passengers decreased as the number of initially infected people increased; in addition, the basic reproduction number R 0 , illness cost per person, and probability of infection with a single virus were higher. However, depending on these variable conditions, the policy to reduce the number of passengers in a vehicle may not be required, so it is necessary to make an appropriate judgment according to the situation. In particular, the emergence of a new mutant COVID-19 will necessitate the development of appropriate countermeasures by comprehensively examining the change in the number of infected individuals and the fatality rate. This study can guide the development of such countermeasures.

Suggested Citation

  • Junsik Park & Gurjoong Kim, 2022. "Social Efficiency of Public Transportation Policy in Response to COVID-19: Model Development and Application to Intercity Buses in Seoul Metropolitan Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:19:p:12060-:d:923430
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jos Lelieveld & Frank Helleis & Stephan Borrmann & Yafang Cheng & Frank Drewnick & Gerald Haug & Thomas Klimach & Jean Sciare & Hang Su & Ulrich Pöschl, 2020. "Model Calculations of Aerosol Transmission and Infection Risk of COVID-19 in Indoor Environments," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Junsik Park & Gurjoong Kim, 2021. "Risk of COVID-19 Infection in Public Transportation: The Development of a Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Kamga, Camille & Eickemeyer, Penny, 2021. "Slowing the spread of COVID-19: Review of “Social distancing” interventions deployed by public transit in the United States and Canada," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 25-36.
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