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Estimating the basic reproduction number for COVID-19 in Western Europe

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  • Isabella Locatelli
  • Bastien Trächsel
  • Valentin Rousson

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in Western Europe. Methods: Data (official statistics) on the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 at the start of the outbreak (before any confinement rules were declared) were retrieved in the 15 largest countries in Western Europe, allowing us to estimate the exponential growth rate of the disease. The rate was then combined with estimates of the distribution of the generation interval as reconstructed from the literature. Results: Despite the possible unreliability of some official statistics about COVID-19, the spread of the disease appears to be remarkably similar in most European countries, allowing us to estimate an average R0 in Western Europe of 2.2 (95% CI: 1.9–2.6). Conclusions: The value of R0 for COVID-19 in Western Europe appears to be significantly lower than that in China. The proportion of immune persons in the European population required to stop the outbreak could thus be closer to 50% than to 70%.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabella Locatelli & Bastien Trächsel & Valentin Rousson, 2021. "Estimating the basic reproduction number for COVID-19 in Western Europe," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-9, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0248731
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248731
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    1. Meng, Xueyu & Lin, Jianhong & Fan, Yufei & Gao, Fujuan & Fenoaltea, Enrico Maria & Cai, Zhiqiang & Si, Shubin, 2023. "Coupled disease-vaccination behavior dynamic analysis and its application in COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Gong, Jiangyue & Gujjula, Krishna Reddy & Ntaimo, Lewis, 2023. "An integrated chance constraints approach for optimal vaccination strategies under uncertainty for COVID-19," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    3. Ida Johnsson & M. Hashem Pesaran & Cynthia Fan Yang, 2023. "Structural Econometric Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number for Covid-19 across U.S. States and Selected Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 10659, CESifo.
    4. Richard J. Sheppard & Oliver J. Watson & Rachel Pieciak & James Lungu & Geoffrey Kwenda & Crispin Moyo & Stephen Longa Chanda & Gregory Barnsley & Nicholas F. Brazeau & Ines C. G. Gerard-Ursin & Danie, 2023. "Using mortuary and burial data to place COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia within a global context," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Maria Czech, 2022. "The Impact of Covid-19 Dynamics on SCDS Spreads in Selected CEE Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 254-271.

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