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Projection of heat wave mortality related to climate change in Korea

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  • Do-Woo Kim
  • Ravinesh Deo
  • Jea-Hak Chung
  • Jong-Seol Lee

Abstract

Heat waves associated with climate change are a significant future concern. Although deaths from heat disorders are a direct effect of heat wave incidences, only a few studies have addressed the causal factors between heat wave incidences and deaths from heat disorder. This study applies regression analysis to the time series data in order to deduce the causal factors that affect the number of deaths from heat disorders (NDHD) in Korea using observational dataset from 1994–2012. The duration of a heat wave and the age of the population are highly correlated with the magnitude of the NDHD. Based on this correlation we also analyze heat wave projections to the climate change scenarios produced using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and to the single aging population scenario till 2060. The magnitude of the NDHD is expected to elevate by approximately fivefold under the RCP4.5 and 7.2-fold under the RCP 8.5 scenarios compared to the current baseline value (≈23 people per summer). Of greater concern is that the steady death rate increase is expected to be intercepted by the more severe events in future compared to the present period. Under both RCP scenarios considered, the extreme cases are projected to eventuate around the 2050s with approximately 250 deaths. We find that in spite of the greenhouse gas policy proposed to meet reductions under the RCP 4.5 scenario; serious heat wave damage in terms of human mortality may still be unavoidable in Korea. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Do-Woo Kim & Ravinesh Deo & Jea-Hak Chung & Jong-Seol Lee, 2016. "Projection of heat wave mortality related to climate change in Korea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 623-637, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:80:y:2016:i:1:p:623-637
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1987-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alho, Juha M., 1990. "Stochastic methods in population forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 521-530, December.
    2. Kiyoshi Takahashi & Yasushi Honda & Seita Emori, 2007. "Assessing Mortality Risk from Heat Stress due to Global Warming," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 339-354, April.
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    1. repec:hal:journl:hal-04684634 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Chae Yeon Park & Dong Kun Lee & Jung Hee Hyun, 2019. "The Effects of Extreme Heat Adaptation Strategies under Different Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios in Seoul, Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-13, July.
    3. Jae Young Lee & Woo-Seop Lee & Kristie L. Ebi & Ho Kim, 2019. "Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-9, March.
    4. Ka-Ming Wai & Lei Xiao & Tanya Zheng Tan, 2021. "Improvement of the Outdoor Thermal Comfort by Water Spraying in a High-Density Urban Environment under the Influence of a Future (2050) Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-13, July.
    5. Hung Chak Ho & Ka Ming Wai & Minhao He & Ta-Chien Chan & Chengbin Deng & Man Sing Wong, 2020. "Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 623-637, August.
    6. Ye, Bin & Jiang, Jingjing & Liu, Junguo & Zheng, Yi & Zhou, Nan, 2021. "Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Jongchul Park & Yeora Chae & Seo Hyung Choi, 2019. "Analysis of Mortality Change Rate from Temperature in Summer by Age, Occupation, Household Type, and Chronic Diseases in 229 Korean Municipalities from 2007–2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-15, May.

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