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Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment

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  • Maud M. T. E. Huynen

    (International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable Development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200-MD Maastricht, The Netherlands)

  • Pim Martens

    (International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable Development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200-MD Maastricht, The Netherlands)

Abstract

Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981–2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAF heat ) and cold (PAF cold ), by combining observed temperature–mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI’14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAF cold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%–7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAF heat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%–2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAF heat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAF cold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAF heat and PAF cold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050—accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend—show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Maud M. T. E. Huynen & Pim Martens, 2015. "Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-26, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2015:i:10:p:13295-13320:d:57646
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kiyoshi Takahashi & Yasushi Honda & Seita Emori, 2007. "Assessing Mortality Risk from Heat Stress due to Global Warming," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 339-354, April.
    2. Knowlton, K. & Lynn, B. & Goldberg, R.A. & Rosenzweig, C. & Hogrefe, C. & Rosenthal, J.K. & Kinney, P.L., 2007. "Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing climate in the New York City region," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 97(11), pages 2028-2034.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jae Young Lee & Woo-Seop Lee & Kristie L. Ebi & Ho Kim, 2019. "Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-9, March.
    2. Michael Sanderson & Katherine Arbuthnott & Sari Kovats & Shakoor Hajat & Pete Falloon, 2017. "The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-34, July.

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