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Estimating Demand for Industrial and Commercial Land Use Given Economic Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Filipe Batista e Silva
  • Eric Koomen
  • Vasco Diogo
  • Carlo Lavalle

Abstract

Current developments in the field of land use modelling point towards greater level of spatial and thematic resolution and the possibility to model large geographical extents. Improvements are taking place as computational capabilities increase and socioeconomic and environmental data are produced with sufficient detail. Integrated approaches to land use modelling rely on the development of interfaces with specialized models from fields like economy, hydrology, and agriculture. Impact assessment of scenarios/policies at various geographical scales can particularly benefit from these advances. A comprehensive land use modelling framework includes necessarily both the estimation of the quantity and the spatial allocation of land uses within a given timeframe. In this paper, we seek to establish straightforward methods to estimate demand for industrial and commercial land uses that can be used in the context of land use modelling, in particular for applications at continental scale, where the unavailability of data is often a major constraint. We propose a set of approaches based on ‘land use intensity’ measures indicating the amount of economic output per existing areal unit of land use. A base model was designed to estimate land demand based on regional-specific land use intensities; in addition, variants accounting for sectoral differences in land use intensity were introduced. A validation was carried out for a set of European countries by estimating land use for 2006 and comparing it to observations. The models’ results were compared with estimations generated using the ‘null model’ (no land use change) and simple trend extrapolations. Results indicate that the proposed approaches clearly outperformed the ‘null model’, but did not consistently outperform the linear extrapolation. An uncertainty analysis further revealed that the models’ performances are particularly sensitive to the quality of the input land use data. In addition, unknown future trends of regional land use intensity widen considerably the uncertainty bands of the predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Filipe Batista e Silva & Eric Koomen & Vasco Diogo & Carlo Lavalle, 2014. "Estimating Demand for Industrial and Commercial Land Use Given Economic Forecasts," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(3), pages 1-14, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0091991
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091991
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    1. Jehling, Mathias & Krehl, Angelika & Krüger, Tobias, 2021. "The more the merrier? Questioning the role of new commercial and industrial locations for employment growth in German city regions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    2. Rega, Carlo & Helming, John & Paracchini, Maria Luisa, 2019. "Environmentalism and localism in agricultural and land-use policies can maintain food production while supporting biodiversity. Findings from simulations of contrasting scenarios in the EU," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Chris Jacobs-Crisioni & Vasco Diogo & Carolina Perpina Castillo & Claudia Baranzelli & Filipe Batista e Silva & Konstantin Rosina & Boyan Kavalov & Carlo Lavalle, 2017. "The LUISA Territorial Reference Scenario 2017: A technical description," JRC Research Reports JRC108163, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Bob van Bronkhorst & Brano Glumac & Tristan Kunen & Michel van Rhee & Wim Schaefer, 2014. "The Dutch Land Market: A Regional Tool for Policy Impact on Vacancy and Grant Rates," ERES eres2014_75, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    5. Eda Ustaoglu & Carlo Lavalle, 2017. "Examining lag effects between industrial land development and regional economic changes: The Netherlands experience," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(9), pages 1-34, September.
    6. Libin Guo & Lina Han & Huikun Hong & Tao Zhou, 2018. "Research on the Enhancement Effects of Using Ecological Principles in Managing the Lifecycle of Industrial Land," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-14, June.
    7. Eda Ustaoglu & Filipe Batista e Silva & Carlo Lavalle, 2020. "Quantifying and modelling industrial and commercial land-use demand in France," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 519-549, January.

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