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Quantifying and modelling industrial and commercial land-use demand in France

Author

Listed:
  • Eda Ustaoglu

    (European Commission-Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Sustainability Assessment Unit)

  • Filipe Batista e Silva

    (European Commission-Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Sustainability Assessment Unit)

  • Carlo Lavalle

    (European Commission-Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Sustainability Assessment Unit)

Abstract

Determinants of industrial/commercial land uses are controversial, and few studies have so far considered the factors influencing industrial and commercial developments. The understanding of such dynamics is important to simulate future land-use demand, which is an essential input for land-use modelling applications. The rigorous estimation of demand for industrial and commercial land is also important to support planning policies and decisions, which aim at allocating scarce land resources efficiently. This study uses regional data from 1990 and 2000 to investigate potential driving factors of industrial/commercial land demand for France, and 2012 data for model validation concerning the projections of land demand. A static model and a change model are specified based on the supply and demand relationship of the regional industrial/commercial land market in France. The estimated models indicate that regional characteristics of location and area, mineral resources and infrastructure, and socio-economic factors are critical to understanding industrial/commercial land developments. From regression analysis, static models show better performance over land-use change models in both the estimation and model validation stages. The change models are biased towards unobserved variables and time-lag effects of the changes in explanatory variables. The use of regression approaches is a valuable tool to explore the factors underlying industrial and commercial expansion at regional level, but their usage for long-term projections is subject to high uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Eda Ustaoglu & Filipe Batista e Silva & Carlo Lavalle, 2020. "Quantifying and modelling industrial and commercial land-use demand in France," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 519-549, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:22:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10668-018-0199-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-018-0199-7
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    2. Wenfang Pu & Anlu Zhang, 2021. "Can Market Reforms Curb the Expansion of Industrial Land?—Based on the Panel Data Analysis of Five National-Level Urban Agglomerations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Pu, Wenfang & Zhang, Anlu & Wen, Lanjiao, 2021. "Can China’s resource-saving and environmentally friendly society really improve the efficiency of industrial land use?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 10(7).
    4. Congguo Zhang & Di Yao & Yanlin Zhen & Weiwei Li & Kerun Li, 2022. "Mismatched Relationship between Urban Industrial Land Consumption and Growth of Manufacturing: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-35, August.
    5. Fei Xie & Shuaibing Zhang & Kaixu Zhao & Fengmei Quan, 2022. "Evolution Mode, Influencing Factors, and Socioeconomic Value of Urban Industrial Land Management in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-33, September.
    6. Ping Zhang & Xiaojuan Yang & Hua Chen & Sidong Zhao, 2023. "Matching Relationship between Urban Service Industry Land Expansion and Economy Growth in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-29, May.
    7. Junheng Qi & Mingxing Hu & Bing Han & Jiemin Zheng & Hui Wang, 2022. "Decoupling Relationship between Industrial Land Expansion and Economic Development in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-21, July.
    8. Cheng, Jing, 2022. "Analysis of the factors influencing industrial land leasing in Beijing of China based on the district-level data," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    9. Ke Wang & Li Wang & Jianjun Zhang, 2024. "Towards a Comprehensive Framework for Regional Transportation Land Demand Forecasting: Empirical Study from Yangtze River Economic Belt, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-22, June.
    10. Wenfang Pu & Anlu Zhang & Lanjiao Wen, 2021. "Can China’s Resource-Saving and Environmentally Friendly Society Really Improve the Efficiency of Industrial Land Use?," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, July.

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