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A model-based evaluation of the efficacy of COVID-19 social distancing, testing and hospital triage policies

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  • Audrey McCombs
  • Claus Kadelka

Abstract

A stochastic compartmental network model of SARS-CoV-2 spread explores the simultaneous effects of policy choices in three domains: social distancing, hospital triaging, and testing. Considering policy domains together provides insight into how different policy decisions interact. The model incorporates important characteristics of COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, such as heterogeneous risk factors and asymptomatic transmission, and enables a reliable qualitative comparison of policy choices despite the current uncertainty in key virus and disease parameters. Results suggest possible refinements to current policies, including emphasizing the need to reduce random encounters more than personal contacts, and testing low-risk symptomatic individuals before high-risk symptomatic individuals. The strength of social distancing of symptomatic individuals affects the degree to which asymptomatic cases drive the epidemic as well as the level of population-wide contact reduction needed to keep hospitals below capacity. The relative importance of testing and triaging also depends on the overall level of social distancing.Author summary: Public health policies implemented to reduce the effects of COVID-19 can interact with each other, enhancing or undermining the effects of other policies employed simultaneously. Here, we present a mathematical model that incorporates many of the important characteristics of the outbreak, including differences in risk behavior and social activity due to demographics, and uncertainties related to asymptomatic cases. Our results suggest that reducing random community encounters is more important than reducing personal contacts, and that testing low-risk versus high-risk symptomatic individuals is most effective. Results also suggest that the effectiveness of a particular policy choice depends on what other policies are concurrently employed, and that policy makers should account for these interactions when considering which guidelines to implement.

Suggested Citation

  • Audrey McCombs & Claus Kadelka, 2020. "A model-based evaluation of the efficacy of COVID-19 social distancing, testing and hospital triage policies," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-18, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pcbi00:1008388
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008388
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    1. Mohammad Akbarpour & Cody Cook & Aude Marzuoli & Simon Mongey & Abhishek Nagaraj & Matteo Saccarola & Pietro Tebaldi & Shoshana Vasserman & Hanbin Yang, 2020. "Socioeconomic Network Heterogeneity and Pandemic Policy Response," Working Papers 2020-75, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.

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