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Disease-economy trade-offs under alternative epidemic control strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Ash

    (University of Southern California)

  • Antonio M. Bento

    (University of Southern California
    University of Southern California
    National Bureau of Economic Research)

  • Daniel Kaffine

    (University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Akhil Rao

    (Middlebury College)

  • Ana I. Bento

    (Indiana University
    Pandemic Prevention Institute, Rockefeller Foundation)

Abstract

Public policy and academic debates regarding pandemic control strategies note disease-economy trade-offs, often prioritizing one outcome over the other. Using a calibrated, coupled epi-economic model of individual behavior embedded within the broader economy during a novel epidemic, we show that targeted isolation strategies can avert up to 91% of economic losses relative to voluntary isolation strategies. Unlike widely-used blanket lockdowns, economic savings of targeted isolation do not impose additional disease burdens, avoiding disease-economy trade-offs. Targeted isolation achieves this by addressing the fundamental coordination failure between infectious and susceptible individuals that drives the recession. Importantly, we show testing and compliance frictions can erode some of the gains from targeted isolation, but improving test quality unlocks the majority of the benefits of targeted isolation.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Ash & Antonio M. Bento & Daniel Kaffine & Akhil Rao & Ana I. Bento, 2022. "Disease-economy trade-offs under alternative epidemic control strategies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-30642-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30642-8
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    1. Marco Pangallo & Alberto Aleta & R. Maria del Rio-Chanona & Anton Pichler & David Martín-Corral & Matteo Chinazzi & François Lafond & Marco Ajelli & Esteban Moro & Yamir Moreno & Alessandro Vespignani, 2024. "The unequal effects of the health–economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 8(2), pages 264-275, February.
    2. Tijs W. Alleman & Jan M. Baetens, 2024. "Assessing the impact of forced and voluntary behavioral changes on economic-epidemiological co-dynamics: A comparative case study between Belgium and Sweden during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic," Papers 2401.08442, arXiv.org.
    3. Yong Dam Jeong & William S. Hart & Robin N. Thompson & Masahiro Ishikane & Takara Nishiyama & Hyeongki Park & Noriko Iwamoto & Ayana Sakurai & Michiyo Suzuki & Kazuyuki Aihara & Koichi Watashi & Eline, 2024. "Modelling the effectiveness of an isolation strategy for managing mpox outbreaks with variable infectiousness profiles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

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