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Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Case Study of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Pervez Zamurrad Janjua

    (International Institute of Islamic Economics
    International Islamic University (IIUI), Islamabad)

  • Ghulam Samad

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

  • Nazakat Ullah Khan

    (International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University (IIUI), Islamabad)

Abstract

Climate change, due to greenhouse gases increasing the earth’s overall temperature, is an emerging issue of agricultural production. The higher temperatures may negatively affect the growth process of wheat and decrease the production of wheat. The objective of this study is to look at the impact of climate change on wheat production which is the main food crop of Pakistan. The study uses the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model to evaluate the impact of global climate change on the production of wheat in Pakistan. The study considers annual data from 1960 to 2009. On the basis of this historical data, the study captures trends for the impact of climate change on wheat production for the period 2010-2060. The results of the historical data estimation reveal that up until now, there is no significant negative impact of climate change on wheat production in Pakistan. However, future wheat production will significantly depend on the climate change variables. Therefore, appropriate adaptative and mitigative techniques are recommended to cope with or at least to reduce this newly emerging hazard.

Suggested Citation

  • Pervez Zamurrad Janjua & Ghulam Samad & Nazakat Ullah Khan, 2010. "Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 799-822.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:49:y:2010:i:4:p:799-822
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Wassie, Solomon Bizuayehu, 2017. "Long Run Determinants Of Cereal Production In Ethiopia: Does Co2 Emission Matter?," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 5(2), April.
    3. Alvar-Beltrán, J. & Heureux, A. & Soldan, R. & Manzanas, R. & Khan, B. & Dalla Marta, A., 2021. "Assessing the impact of climate change on wheat and sugarcane with the AquaCrop model along the Indus River Basin, Pakistan," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    4. Heman D. Lohano, "undated". "Weather Variability, Agricultural Revenues and Internal Migration: Evidence from Pakistan," Working papers 99, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    5. Shakeel Ahmad & Muhammad Tariq & Touseef Hussain & Qasir Abbas & Hamidullah Elham & Iqbal Haider & Xiangmei Li, 2020. "Does Chinese FDI, Climate Change, and CO 2 Emissions Stimulate Agricultural Productivity? An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-20, September.
    6. Bakhtmina Zia & Dr Muhammad Rafiq PhD Research Scholar & Institute of Management Sciences & Peshawar & Pakistan & Associate Professor & Institute of Management Sciences & Peshawar & Pakistan, 2020. "Reviewing climate change and agricultural market competitiveness," Papers 2008.13726, arXiv.org.
    7. Muhammad Nouman Shafiq & Seemab Gillani & Shaiza Shafiq, 2021. "Climate Change and Agricultural Production in Pakistan," iRASD Journal of Energy and Environment, International Research Association for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 2(2), pages 47-54, December.
    8. Syed Asif Ali Naqvi & Abdul Majeed Nadeem & Muhammad Amjed Iqbal & Sadia Ali & Asia Naseem, 2019. "Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Current and Future Production Systems in Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-13, September.
    9. Shahzad, Muhammad Faisal & Abdulai, Awudu, 2020. "Adaptation to extreme weather conditions and farm performance in rural Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    10. Nasir Munir & Adiqa Kiani & Asia Baig, 2016. "Climate Change and Food Security in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 1(1), pages 47-55, December.
    11. Pakrooh, Parisa & Kamal, Muhamad Abdul, 2023. "Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on wheat yield in Iran: Evidence from national and provincial data analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    12. Sohail Abbas & Zulfiqar Ali Mayo, 2021. "Impact of temperature and rainfall on rice production in Punjab, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1706-1728, February.
    13. Akbar Khan Khajjak & Tehmina Mangan & Habibullah Magsi & Aijaz Ali Khooharo, 2022. "Exploring the Inefficient Groundwater Use by Wheat Farmers: An Evidence from Sindh, Pakistan," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(2), pages 22-31.
    14. Anwar Hussain & Rabia Bangash, 2017. "Impact of Climate Change on Crops’ Productivity across Selected Agro-ecological Zones in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 56(2), pages 163-187.
    15. Muhammad Aamir Khan & Alishba Tahir & Nabila Khurshid & Muhammad Iftikhar ul Husnain & Mukhtar Ahmed & Houcine Boughanmi, 2020. "Economic Effects of Climate Change-Induced Loss of Agricultural Production by 2050: A Case Study of Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-17, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Global Warming; Greenhouse Gases (GHGs); C3&C4 Crops;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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