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Assessing the impact of climate change on wheat and sugarcane with the AquaCrop model along the Indus River Basin, Pakistan

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  • Alvar-Beltrán, J.
  • Heureux, A.
  • Soldan, R.
  • Manzanas, R.
  • Khan, B.
  • Dalla Marta, A.

Abstract

Pakistan is among the most vulnerable regions to climate change impacts, in particular the agricultural areas found in the worlds’ largest contiguous irrigation system, the Indus River Basin (IRB). This study assesses the impacts of two climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways-RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) on soil evaporation and transpiration rates, crop water productivity (CWP) and wheat and sugarcane yields over the 21st century, under two irrigation schedules (less/more frequent irrigation and higher/lower volume) for six locations along the Sindh and Punjab provinces. Maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase across the study area over the course of the 21st century. Additionally, precipitation is projected to increase (decrease) along the southernmost (northernmost) areas during the summer rainy season from June to September. To evaluate the crop-water productivity of wheat and sugarcane, we used the AquaCrop model in the six selected locations. For assessing the goodness of model validation and calibration, different statistical indicators are considered for comparing simulated and observed inter-annual yield variability (e.g. NRMSE of 12.4% and 12.1% for wheat and sugarcane, average values of the calibration and validation process). Our results show that wheat yields are likely to remain constant over time across the study areas, whereas sugarcane yields are expected to experience a decline in the Sindh province and an exponential increase in the Punjab province up to 2080, then yields will start to decline. In addition, our results reveal that both crops perform better, in terms of CWP, under low frequent irrigation and higher volumes of water. Overall, the findings of this work also support policymakers and project developers to implement adaptation strategies to cope with changing environmental conditions in a country where pressure on water resources is expected to continue to grow.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvar-Beltrán, J. & Heureux, A. & Soldan, R. & Manzanas, R. & Khan, B. & Dalla Marta, A., 2021. "Assessing the impact of climate change on wheat and sugarcane with the AquaCrop model along the Indus River Basin, Pakistan," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:253:y:2021:i:c:s0378377421001748
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2021.106909
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abdul Malik & Abdul Sattar Shakir & Muhammad Ajmal & Muhammad Jamal Khan & Taj Ali Khan, 2017. "Assessment of AquaCrop Model in Simulating Sugar Beet Canopy Cover, Biomass and Root Yield under Different Irrigation and Field Management Practices in Semi-Arid Regions of Pakistan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(13), pages 4275-4292, October.
    2. Qureshi, S. A. & Madramootoo, C. A. & Dodds, G. T., 2002. "Evaluation of irrigation schemes for sugarcane in Sindh, Pakistan, using SWAP93," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 37-48, March.
    3. R. Manzanas & L. Fiwa & C. Vanya & H. Kanamaru & J. M. Gutiérrez, 2020. "Statistical downscaling or bias adjustment? A case study involving implausible climate change projections of precipitation in Malawi," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1437-1453, October.
    4. Jamie Sanderson & Sardar M. N. Islam, 2007. "Climate Change and Economic Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-59012-0, March.
    5. Andarzian, B. & Bannayan, M. & Steduto, P. & Mazraeh, H. & Barati, M.E. & Barati, M.A. & Rahnama, A., 2011. "Validation and testing of the AquaCrop model under full and deficit irrigated wheat production in Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 1-8.
    6. Pervez Zamurrad Janjua & Ghulam Samad & Nazakat Ullah Khan, 2010. "Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 799-822.
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    1. Chen, Mengting & Linker, Raphael & Wu, Conglin & Xie, Hua & Cui, Yuanlai & Luo, Yufeng & Lv, Xinwei & Zheng, Shizong, 2022. "Multi-objective optimization of rice irrigation modes using ACOP-Rice model and historical meteorological data," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).

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