IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/jorsoc/v57y2006i1d10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601954.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nonparametric adaptive opportunity-based age replacement strategies

Author

Listed:
  • P Coolen-Schrijner

    (University of Durham)

  • F P A Coolen

    (University of Durham)

  • S C Shaw

    (University of Bath)

Abstract

We consider opportunity-based age replacement (OAR) using nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for the time to failure of a future unit. Based on n observed failure times, NPI provides lower and upper bounds for the survival function for the time to failure Xn+1 of a future unit which lead to upper and lower cost functions, respectively, for OAR based on the renewal reward theorem. Optimal OAR strategies for unit n+1 follow by minimizing these cost functions. Following this strategy, unit n+1 is correctively replaced upon failure, or preventively replaced upon the first opportunity after the optimal OAR threshold. We study the effect of this replacement information for unit n+1 on the optimal OAR strategy for unit n+2. We illustrate our method with examples and a simulation study. Our method is fully adaptive to available data, providing an alternative to the classical approach where the probability distribution of a unit's time to failure is assumed to be known. We discuss the possible use of our method and compare it with the classical approach, where we conclude that in most situations our adaptive method performs very well, but that counter-intuitive results can occur.

Suggested Citation

  • P Coolen-Schrijner & F P A Coolen & S C Shaw, 2006. "Nonparametric adaptive opportunity-based age replacement strategies," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(1), pages 63-81, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:57:y:2006:i:1:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601954
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601954
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601954
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601954?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P Coolen-Schrijner & F P A Coolen, 2004. "Adaptive age replacement strategies based on nonparametric predictive inference," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(12), pages 1281-1297, December.
    2. Percy, David F., 2002. "Bayesian enhanced strategic decision making for reliability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 133-145, May.
    3. S Apeland & P A Scarf, 2003. "A fully subjective approach to capital equipment replacement," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(4), pages 371-378, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Coolen-Schrijner, P. & Coolen, F.P.A., 2007. "Nonparametric adaptive age replacement with a one-cycle criterion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 74-84.
    2. Houlding, B. & Coolen, F.P.A., 2012. "Nonparametric predictive utility inference," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 222-230.
    3. Rebecca M. Baker & Tahani Coolen-Maturi & Frank P. A. Coolen, 2017. "Nonparametric predictive inference for stock returns," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(8), pages 1333-1349, June.
    4. Hamidi, Maryam & Szidarovszky, Ferenc & Szidarovszky, Miklos, 2016. "New one cycle criteria for optimizing preventive replacement policies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 42-48.
    5. T F Lipi & J-H Lim & M J Zuo & W Wang, 2012. "A condition- and age-based replacement model using delay time modelling," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 226(2), pages 221-233, April.
    6. V. J. Roelofs & F. P. A. Coolen & A. D. M. Hart, 2011. "Nonparametric Predictive Inference for Exposure Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 218-227, February.
    7. P Coolen-Schrijner & F. P. A. Coolen, 2006. "On Optimality Criteria for Age Replacement," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 220(1), pages 21-29, June.
    8. P Coolen-Schrijner & S C Shaw & F P A Coolen, 2009. "Opportunity-based age replacement with a one-cycle criterion," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(10), pages 1428-1438, October.
    9. P Coolen-Schrijner & F P A Coolen & I M MacPhee, 2008. "Nonparametric predictive inference for system reliability with redundancy allocation," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 222(4), pages 463-476, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Crevecoeur, Jonas & Antonio, Katrien & Verbelen, Roel, 2019. "Modeling the number of hidden events subject to observation delay," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(3), pages 930-944.
    2. Sun, Yong & Ma, Lin & Mathew, Joseph & Zhang, Sheng, 2006. "An analytical model for interactive failures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(5), pages 495-504.
    3. Ferreira, Rodrigo J.P. & de Almeida, Adiel Teixeira & Cavalcante, Cristiano A.V., 2009. "A multi-criteria decision model to determine inspection intervals of condition monitoring based on delay time analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(5), pages 905-912.
    4. D Venkat & F P A Coolen & P Coolen-Schrijner, 2010. "Extended opportunity-based age replacement with a one-cycle criterion," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 224(1), pages 55-62, March.
    5. Coolen-Schrijner, P. & Coolen, F.P.A., 2007. "Nonparametric adaptive age replacement with a one-cycle criterion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 74-84.
    6. Levitin, Gregory & Xing, Liudong & Dai, Yuanshun, 2015. "Optimal loading of system with random repair time," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 137-143.
    7. Insua, David Rios & Ruggeri, Fabrizio & Soyer, Refik & Wilson, Simon, 2020. "Advances in Bayesian decision making in reliability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(1), pages 1-18.
    8. A K Suzuki & L E B Salasar & J G Leite & F Louzada-Neto, 2010. "A Bayesian approach for predicting match outcomes: The 2006 (Association) Football World Cup," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(10), pages 1530-1539, October.
    9. Levitin, Gregory & Xing, Liudong & Dai, Yuanshun, 2015. "Optimal backup frequency in system with random repair time," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 12-22.
    10. Werner, Christoph & Bedford, Tim & Cooke, Roger M. & Hanea, Anca M. & Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo, 2017. "Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 801-819.
    11. M Rahrouh & F. P. A. Coolen & P Coolen-Schrijner, 2006. "Bayesian reliability demonstration for systems with redundancy," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 220(2), pages 137-145, December.
    12. P Coolen-Schrijner & F P A Coolen & I M MacPhee, 2008. "Nonparametric predictive inference for system reliability with redundancy allocation," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 222(4), pages 463-476, December.
    13. P Coolen-Schrijner & F. P. A. Coolen, 2006. "On Optimality Criteria for Age Replacement," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 220(1), pages 21-29, June.
    14. Zu‐Liang Lin & Yeu‐Shiang Huang, 2010. "Nonperiodic preventive maintenance for repairable systems," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(7), pages 615-625, October.
    15. P Coolen-Schrijner & F P A Coolen, 2004. "Adaptive age replacement strategies based on nonparametric predictive inference," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(12), pages 1281-1297, December.
    16. E K Doyle & C-G Lee & D I Cho, 2009. "Justification for the next generation of maintenance modelling techniques," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(4), pages 461-470, April.
    17. de Jonge, Bram & Scarf, Philip A., 2020. "A review on maintenance optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(3), pages 805-824.
    18. Si, Xiao-Sheng & Wang, Wenbin & Hu, Chang-Hua & Zhou, Dong-Hua, 2011. "Remaining useful life estimation - A review on the statistical data driven approaches," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 1-14, August.
    19. Dursun, İpek & Akçay, Alp & van Houtum, Geert-Jan, 2022. "Age-based maintenance under population heterogeneity: Optimal exploration and exploitation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(3), pages 1007-1020.
    20. Kierulff, Herbert E., 2007. "The replacement decision: Getting it right," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 231-237.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:57:y:2006:i:1:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601954. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.