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Adaptive age replacement strategies based on nonparametric predictive inference

Author

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  • P Coolen-Schrijner

    (University of Durham)

  • F P A Coolen

    (University of Durham)

Abstract

We consider an age replacement problem using nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for the lifetime of a future unit. Based on n observed failure times, NPI provides lower and upper bounds for the survival function for a future lifetime X n+1, which are lower and upper survival functions in the theory of interval probability, and which lead to upper and lower cost functions, respectively, for age replacement based on the renewal reward theorem. Optimal age replacement times for X n+1 follow by minimizing these cost functions. Although the renewal reward theorem implicitly assumes that the corresponding optimal strategy will be used for a long period, we study the effect on this strategy when the observed value for X n+1, which is either an observed failure time or a right-censored observation, becomes available. This is possible due to the fully adaptive nature of our nonparametric approach, and the next optimal strategy will be for X n+2. We compare the optimal strategies for X n+1 and X n+2 both analytically and via simulation studies. Our NPI-based approach is fully adaptive to the data, to which it adds only few structural assumptions. We discuss the possible use of this approach, and indeed the wider importance of the conclusions of this study to situations where one wishes to combine the statistical aspects of estimating a lifetime distribution with the more traditional operational research approach of determining optimal replacement strategies for lifetime distributions that are assumed to be known.

Suggested Citation

  • P Coolen-Schrijner & F P A Coolen, 2004. "Adaptive age replacement strategies based on nonparametric predictive inference," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(12), pages 1281-1297, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:55:y:2004:i:12:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601764
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601764
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Coolen, F. P. A. & Coolen-Schrijner, P., 2003. "A nonparametric predictive method for queues," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 425-442, March.
    2. F P A Coolen & P Coolen-Schrijner, 2000. "Condition monitoring: a new perspective," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(3), pages 311-319, March.
    3. S Apeland & P A Scarf, 2003. "A fully subjective approach to capital equipment replacement," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(4), pages 371-378, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Coolen-Schrijner, P. & Coolen, F.P.A., 2007. "Nonparametric adaptive age replacement with a one-cycle criterion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 74-84.
    2. P Coolen-Schrijner & F P A Coolen & S C Shaw, 2006. "Nonparametric adaptive opportunity-based age replacement strategies," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(1), pages 63-81, January.
    3. P Coolen-Schrijner & F P A Coolen & I M MacPhee, 2008. "Nonparametric predictive inference for system reliability with redundancy allocation," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 222(4), pages 463-476, December.
    4. Dursun, İpek & Akçay, Alp & van Houtum, Geert-Jan, 2022. "Age-based maintenance under population heterogeneity: Optimal exploration and exploitation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(3), pages 1007-1020.
    5. D Venkat & F P A Coolen & P Coolen-Schrijner, 2010. "Extended opportunity-based age replacement with a one-cycle criterion," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 224(1), pages 55-62, March.
    6. P Coolen-Schrijner & F. P. A. Coolen, 2006. "On Optimality Criteria for Age Replacement," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 220(1), pages 21-29, June.
    7. de Jonge, Bram & Scarf, Philip A., 2020. "A review on maintenance optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(3), pages 805-824.

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