IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/easeco/v48y2022i3d10.1057_s41302-022-00211-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Currency Devaluation as a Source of Growth in Africa: A Synthetic Control Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Florence Bouvet

    (Sonoma State University)

  • Roy Bower

    (Furman University)

  • Jason C. Jones

    (Furman University)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the 1994 IMF-supported CFA franc devaluation on GDP per capita in the CFA-franc zone using the augmented synthetic control methodology. With the exception of Mali, there is no statistical evidence that GDP per capita levels rose relative to what they would have been in the absence of the IMF-supported devaluation. Three countries record statistically significant GDP per capita levels below the counterfactual following the devaluation, though these countries experienced a deterioration of their national institutional environment or were affected by external factors that offset any potential gains from the devaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Florence Bouvet & Roy Bower & Jason C. Jones, 2022. "Currency Devaluation as a Source of Growth in Africa: A Synthetic Control Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 367-389, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:easeco:v:48:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1057_s41302-022-00211-4
    DOI: 10.1057/s41302-022-00211-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41302-022-00211-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41302-022-00211-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthew A. Cole & Robert J R Elliott & Bowen Liu, 2020. "The Impact of the Wuhan Covid-19 Lockdown on Air Pollution and Health: A Machine Learning and Augmented Synthetic Control Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 553-580, August.
    2. Mónica Amador-Jiménez & Naomi Millner & Charles Palmer & R. Toby Pennington & Lorenzo Sileci, 2020. "The Unintended Impact of Colombia’s Covid-19 Lockdown on Forest Fires," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 1081-1105, August.
    3. Bussière, Matthieu & Saxena, Sweta C. & Tovar, Camilo E., 2012. "Chronicle of currency collapses: Re examining the effects on output," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 680-708.
    4. Eli Ben-Michael & Avi Feller & Jesse Rothstein, 2021. "The Augmented Synthetic Control Method," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1789-1803, October.
    5. Ms. Monique Newiak & Tim Willems, 2017. "Evaluating the Impact of Non-Financial IMF Programs Using the Synthetic Control Method," IMF Working Papers 2017/109, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Kym Anderson & William A. Masters, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2607.
    7. Jean-Paul Azam, 2004. "Poverty and Growth in the WAEMU after the 1994 Devaluation," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 13(4), pages 536-562, December.
    8. Kym Anderson, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Versus Nonagricultural Producer Incentives," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 55-74, September.
    9. Hope, David, 2016. "Estimating the effect of the EMU on current account balances: A synthetic control approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    10. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472, Elsevier.
    11. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    12. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 983-1001, July.
    13. Arabinda Basistha & Sheida Teimouri, 2015. "Currency Crises and Output Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 139-153, February.
    14. Chamon, Marcos & Garcia, Márcio & Souza, Laura, 2017. "FX interventions in Brazil: A synthetic control approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 157-168.
    15. Axel Dreher, 2009. "IMF conditionality: theory and evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 233-267, October.
    16. João Tovar Jalles & Carlos Mulas-Granados & José Tavares & Carolina Correa Caro, 2018. "Single currency and fiscal performance: the early Euro Area in perspective," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 415-419, March.
    17. Zelealem Yiheyis, 2006. "The Effects of Devaluation on Aggregate Output: Empirical Evidence from Africa," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 21-45.
    18. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    19. Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July.
    20. Kym Anderson, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives : A Global Perspective, 1955-2007," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 9436.
    21. Fouopi Djiogap Constant, 2012. "The CFA Franc Devaluation and Output Growth in the Franc Zone," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(1), pages 40-48, January.
    22. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    23. Panagariya, Arvind & Schiff, Maurice, 1990. "Commodity exports and real income in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 537, The World Bank.
    24. Alessio Terzi & Pasqual Marco Marrazzo, 2017. "Wide-reaching Structural Reforms and Growth: A Cross-country Synthetic Control Approach," CID Working Papers 82a, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    25. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2012. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update," IMF Working Papers 2012/163, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Essers, Dennis & Ide, Stefaan, 2019. "The IMF and precautionary lending: An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the Flexible Credit Line," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 25-61.
    27. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    28. Anderson, Kym, 2009. "Five Decades of Distortions to Agricultural Incentives," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48742, World Bank.
    29. Miguel Angel Santos & Dany Bahar & Carlos A. Molina, 2018. "Fool’s Gold: The Impact of Venezuelan Currency Devaluations on Multinational Stock Prices," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2018), pages 93-128, November.
    30. Mr. James M. Boughton, 1991. "The CFA Franc Zone: Currency Union and Monetary Standard," IMF Working Papers 1991/133, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Abera Gelan, 2013. "Are Devaluations Contractionary in Africa?," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 1-14, March.
    32. Michael M Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2002. "Output Costs of Currency and Balance of Payments Crises in Emerging Markets," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 44(2-3), pages 27-44, September.
    33. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2611.
    34. Hope, David, 2016. "Estimating the effect of the EMU on current account balances: a synthetic control approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67137, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    35. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    36. Anderson, Kym & Swinnen, Johan F.M., 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Eastern Europe and Central Asia," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48624, World Bank.
    37. Mr. P. van den Boogaerde & Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2005. "Ten Years After the CFA Franc Devaluation: Progress Toward Regional Integration in the WAEMU," IMF Working Papers 2005/145, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Devarajan, Shantayanan, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the CFA Zone," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 6(1), pages 35-53, March.
    39. Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Mr. Tidiane Kinda, 2011. "The Quest for Higher Growth in the WAEMU Region: The Role of Accelerations and Decelerations," IMF Working Papers 2011/174, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Emilia Gyoerk, 2017. "Economic Costs and Benefits of EMU Membership from the Perspective of a Non-member," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 893-921, November.
    41. Florence Bouvet, 2021. "Regional integration and income inequality: a synthetic counterfactual analysis of the European Monetary Union," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 37(1), pages 172-200.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigue Dossou-Cadja, 2024. "The 1992-93 EMS Crisis and the South: Lessons from the Franc Zone System and the 1994 CFA Franc Devaluation," Working Papers 0246, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    2. Bilbao-Goyoaga, Eugenia, 2023. "Perceptions Matter: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Minimum Income on Objective and Subjective Financial Wellbeing in Spain," SocArXiv wv7xt, Center for Open Science.
    3. Josh Matti, 2024. "The Long‐Term Economic Impact of Abenomics: Evidence from the Synthetic Control Method," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 43(1), pages 10-33, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hong Zhuang & Miao Grace Wang & Imre Ersoy & Mesut Eren, 2023. "Does joining the European monetary union improve labor productivity? A synthetic control approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 287-306, June.
    2. Florentin Kerschbaumer & Andreas Maschke, 2021. "The Implications of Monetary Union for Income Inequality: An Empirical Assessment," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 47(4), pages 537-574.
    3. Martín Rossi & Ezequiel García Lembergman & Rodolfo Stucchi, 2015. "The Impact of Restrictions to Export on Production: A synthetic controls approach," Working Papers 124, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Sep 2015.
    4. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    5. Roy Cerqueti & Raffaella Coppier & Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2022. "The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 46-70.
    6. Essers, Dennis & Ide, Stefaan, 2019. "The IMF and precautionary lending: An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the Flexible Credit Line," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 25-61.
    7. Kuruc, Kevin, 2022. "Are IMF rescue packages effective? A synthetic control analysis of macroeconomic crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 38-53.
    8. Schwerhoff, Gregor & Wehkamp, Johanna, 2018. "Export tariffs combined with public investments as a forest conservation policy instrument," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 69-84.
    9. Hideki Shimada & Kenji Asano & Yu Nagai & Akito Ozawa, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of Offshore Wind Power Deployment on Fishery: A Synthetic Control Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(3), pages 791-829, November.
    10. Johan Swinnen & Alessandro Olper & Senne Vandevelde, 2021. "From unfair prices to unfair trading practices: Political economy, value chains and 21st century agri‐food policy," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(5), pages 771-788, September.
    11. Samer Matta & Michael Bleaney & Simon Appleton, 2022. "The economic impact of political instability and mass civil protest," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 253-270, March.
    12. Kamel Louhichi & Aymeric Ricome & Sergio Gomez y Paloma, 2022. "Impacts of agricultural taxation in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Insights from agricultural produce cess in Tanzania," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(5), pages 671-686, September.
    13. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
    14. Johnson, Michael & Dorosh, Paul, 2015. "Optimal Tariffs with Smuggling: A Spatial Analysis of Nigerian Rice Policy Options," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211816, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Monastiriotis, Vassilis & Zilic, Ivan, 2020. "The economic effects of political disintegration: Lessons from Serbia and Montenegro," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    16. Poczta-Wajda, Agnieszka, 2014. "Assistance To Agriculture In Countries Of A Different Development Level And Trends In World Trade With Agricultural Products," Roczniki (Annals), Polish Association of Agricultural Economists and Agribusiness - Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistow Rolnictwa e Agrobiznesu (SERiA), vol. 2014(6).
    17. Derek D. Headey, 2016. "The evolution of global farming land: facts and interpretations," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(S1), pages 185-196, November.
    18. Kym Anderson & Sundar Ponnusamy, 2019. "Structural Transformation to Manufacturing and Services: What Role for Trade?," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 36(2), pages 32-71, September.
    19. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2011. "Agricultural Policy as a Barrier to Global Economic Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume III, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. repec:lic:licosd:38416 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Kym Anderson, 2009. "Distorted Agricultural Incentives and Economic Development: Asia's Experience," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 351-384, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency devaluation; Augmented synthetic control method; CFA monetary union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:easeco:v:48:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1057_s41302-022-00211-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.