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Fool’s Gold: The Impact of Venezuelan Currency Devaluations on Multinational Stock Prices

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  • Miguel Angel Santos
  • Dany Bahar
  • Carlos A. Molina

Abstract

This paper documents negative cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) to five exchange rate devaluations in Venezuela within the context of stiff exchange controls and large black-market premiums, using daily stock prices for 110 multinational corporations with Venezuelan subsidiaries. The results suggest evidence of statistically and economically significant negative CARs of up to 2.07 percent over the ten-day event window. We find consistent results using synthetic controls to causally infer the effect of each devaluation on the stock prices of global firms active in the country at the time of the event. Our results are at odds with the predictions of the efficient market hypothesis stating that predictable devaluations should not affect the stock prices of large multinational companies on the day of the event, and even less so when they happen in small countries. We interpret these results as a suggestive indication of market inefficiencies in the process of asset pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Angel Santos & Dany Bahar & Carlos A. Molina, 2018. "Fool’s Gold: The Impact of Venezuelan Currency Devaluations on Multinational Stock Prices," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2018), pages 93-128, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000425:016955
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 983-1001, July.
    2. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
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    Cited by:

    1. García-Suaza, Andrés & Mondragón-Mayo, Angie & Sarango-Iturralde, Alexander, 2024. "Occupational downgrading of Venezuelan migrants in Colombia: Do work permits Improve occupational mobility?," Documentos de Trabajo 21028, Universidad del Rosario.
    2. Bahar, Dany & Ibáñez, Ana María & Rozo, Sandra V., 2021. "Give me your tired and your poor: Impact of a large-scale amnesty program for undocumented refugees," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Florence Bouvet & Roy Bower & Jason C. Jones, 2022. "Currency Devaluation as a Source of Growth in Africa: A Synthetic Control Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 367-389, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Devaluations; stock prices; market efficiency; event study; synthetic controls;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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