IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jproda/v59y2023i3d10.1007_s11123-023-00668-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does joining the European monetary union improve labor productivity? A synthetic control approach

Author

Listed:
  • Hong Zhuang

    (Indiana University South Bend)

  • Miao Grace Wang

    (Dr. E.J. and Margaret O’Brien Hall, Marquette University)

  • Imre Ersoy

    (Marmara University)

  • Mesut Eren

    (Marmara University)

Abstract

We adopt the innovative synthetic control method (SCM) to study the causal effect of joining the European Monetary Union (EMU) on member countries’ labor productivity. Comparing labor productivity between members and their synthetic counterparts, we find that Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, and the Netherlands experienced significant labor productivity gains from the eurozone membership. Our results are robust to a series of sensitivity checks. We also observe similar effects of EMU on members’ total factor productivity (TFP). Furthermore, we explore potential channels through which a monetary union can influence members’ labor productivity. Our results show that business cycle synchronization with other members and similar labor market institutions to other members contribute to an EMU country’s labor productivity gains.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong Zhuang & Miao Grace Wang & Imre Ersoy & Mesut Eren, 2023. "Does joining the European monetary union improve labor productivity? A synthetic control approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 287-306, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jproda:v:59:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11123-023-00668-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11123-023-00668-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11123-023-00668-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11123-023-00668-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    2. Gita Gopinath & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Loukas Karabarbounis & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2017. "Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1915-1967.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    4. Mika, Alina & Zymek, Robert, 2018. "Friends without benefits? New EMU members and the “Euro Effect” on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 75-92.
    5. Diewart, W Erwin & Morrison, Catherine J, 1986. "Adjusting Output and Productivity Indexes for Changes in the Terms of Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(383), pages 659-679, September.
    6. Michał Gradzewicz & Krzysztof Makarski, 2013. "The business cycle implications of the euro adoption in Poland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2443-2455, June.
    7. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2018. "Monetary integration vs. real disintegration: single currency and productivity divergence in the euro area," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 353-367, October.
    8. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    9. Leonardo Baccini & Quan Li & Irina Mirkina, 2014. "Corporate Tax Cuts And Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 977-1006, September.
    10. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2009. "European integration, productivity growth and real convergence: Evidence from the new member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 127-137, June.
    11. De Grauwe, Paul, 2016. "Economics of Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 11, number 9780198739876.
    12. Michael G. Arghyrou & Georgios Chortareas, 2008. "Current Account Imbalances and Real Exchange Rates in the Euro Area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 747-764, September.
    13. Ashok Kaul & Stefan Klößner & Gregor Pfeifer & Manuel Schieler, 2022. "Standard Synthetic Control Methods: The Case of Using All Preintervention Outcomes Together With Covariates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1362-1376, June.
    14. Perotti, Enrico & Soons, Oscar, 2019. "The Political Economy of a Diverse Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 13987, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Campos, Nauro F. & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Moretti, Luigi, 2019. "Institutional integration and economic growth in Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 88-104.
    16. Hope, David, 2016. "Estimating the effect of the EMU on current account balances: A synthetic control approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    17. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2014. "The Financial Resource Curse," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 58-86, January.
    18. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU [‘A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356.
    19. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
    20. Hoffmann, Peter & Kremer, Manfred & Zaharia, Sonia, 2020. "Financial integration in Europe through the lens of composite indicators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    21. Hope, David, 2016. "Estimating the effect of the EMU on current account balances: a synthetic control approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67137, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    22. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:18:y:2003:i:37:p:315-356 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    24. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    25. Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
    26. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    27. José de Sousa & Julie Lochard, 2011. "Does the Single Currency Affect Foreign Direct Investment?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(3), pages 553-578, September.
    28. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 983-1001, July.
    29. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    30. Ana Maria Santacreu, 2015. "Measuring Labor Productivity: Technology and the Labor Supply," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 5.
    31. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 2005. "The Industry Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 319-342, April.
    32. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2018. "Monetary integration vs. real disintegration: single currency and productivity divergence in the euro area," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 353-367, October.
    33. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    34. João Tovar Jalles & Carlos Mulas-Granados & José Tavares & Carolina Correa Caro, 2018. "Single currency and fiscal performance: the early Euro Area in perspective," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 415-419, March.
    35. Harald Badinger & Kemal Türkcan, 2014. "Currency Unions, Export Margins, and Product Differentiation: An Empirical Assessment for European Monetary Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 13-30, February.
    36. Emilia Gyoerk, 2017. "Economic Costs and Benefits of EMU Membership from the Perspective of a Non-member," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 893-921, November.
    37. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1.
    38. Gregory DeAngelo & Benjamin Hansen, 2014. "Life and Death in the Fast Lane: Police Enforcement and Traffic Fatalities," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 231-257, May.
    39. Saia, Alessandro, 2017. "Choosing the open sea: The cost to the UK of staying out of the euro," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 82-98.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mauri Kotamaki & Jonne Lehtimaki, 2024. "Getting too old for this: Economic effects of ageing population in Finland," Discussion Papers 168, Aboa Centre for Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque & Pessoa, Ana Sofia, 2024. "Adopting the euro: A synthetic control approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Puzzello, Laura & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro, 2018. "Winners and losers from the €uro," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 129-152.
    3. Florence Bouvet & Roy Bower & Jason C. Jones, 2022. "Currency Devaluation as a Source of Growth in Africa: A Synthetic Control Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 367-389, June.
    4. Tomasz Serwach, 2023. "The European Union and within‐country income inequalities. The case of the new member states," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 1890-1939, July.
    5. Florentin Kerschbaumer & Andreas Maschke, 2021. "The Implications of Monetary Union for Income Inequality: An Empirical Assessment," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 47(4), pages 537-574.
    6. Hope, David, 2016. "Estimating the effect of the EMU on current account balances: A synthetic control approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    7. Abidemi Adisa & Michael Farmer & Jamie Bologna Pavlik, 2023. "The effect of the Mahathir regime on the Malaysian economy," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 97-114, January.
    8. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
    9. Monastiriotis, Vassilis & Zilic, Ivan, 2020. "The economic effects of political disintegration: Lessons from Serbia and Montenegro," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Tomasz Serwach, 2022. "The European Union and within-country income inequalities. The case of the New Member States," Working Papers hal-03548416, HAL.
    11. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    12. Brehm, Johannes & aus dem Moore, Nils & Gruhl, Henri, 2022. "Driving Innovation? – Carbon Tax Effects in the Swedish Transport Sector," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264085, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: How Tax Salience and Fuel Substitution Mediate Climate and Health Benefits," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Esteban Colla‐De‐Robertis & Rafael Garduno Rivera, 2021. "The effect of a free trade agreement with the United States on member countries' per capita GDP: A synthetic control analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 1129-1145, August.
    15. William Addessi & Bianca Biagi & Maria Giovanna Brandano, 2019. "Evaluating the effect of the introduction of the euro on tourist flows: A synthetic control approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 1554-1575, May.
    16. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: Causal Effects of Fuel Taxation and Mediating Mechanisms for Reducing Climate and Pollution Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 10508, CESifo.
    17. Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2024. "Populist Constitutional Backsliding and Judicial Independence: Evidence from Turkiye," Papers 2410.02439, arXiv.org.
    18. Samuel Verevis & Murat Üngör, 2021. "What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 20-50, February.
    19. Echevarría, Cruz A. & Hasancebi, Serhat & García-Enríquez, Javier, 2022. "Economic Effects of Macao’s Integration with Mainland China: A Causal Inference Study," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 179-215.
    20. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor Productivity; Eurozone; European Monetary Union; Synthetic Control Method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jproda:v:59:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11123-023-00668-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.