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Empirical asset pricing via machine learning: evidence from the European stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Drobetz

    (University of Hamburg)

  • Tizian Otto

    (University of Hamburg)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the predictive performance of machine learning methods in forecasting European stock returns. Compared to a linear benchmark model, interactions and nonlinear effects help improve the predictive performance. But machine learning models must be adequately trained and tuned to overcome the high dimensionality problem and to avoid overfitting. Across all machine learning methods, the most important predictors are based on price trends and fundamental signals from valuation ratios. However, the models exhibit substantial variation in statistical predictive performance that translate into pronounced differences in economic profitability. The return and risk measures of long-only trading strategies indicate that machine learning models produce sizeable gains relative to our benchmark. Neural networks perform best, also after accounting for transaction costs. A classification-based portfolio formation, utilizing a support vector machine that avoids estimating stock-level expected returns, performs even better than the neural network architecture.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Drobetz & Tizian Otto, 2021. "Empirical asset pricing via machine learning: evidence from the European stock market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(7), pages 507-538, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:22:y:2021:i:7:d:10.1057_s41260-021-00237-x
    DOI: 10.1057/s41260-021-00237-x
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    2. Cakici, Nusret & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "Machine learning and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Antonio Marsi, 2023. "Predicting European stock returns using machine learning," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(7), pages 1-25, July.
    4. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Kalsbach, Tobias, 2023. "Machine learning and the cross-section of emerging market stock returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    5. Cakici, Nusret & Fieberg, Christian & Metko, Daniel & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Machine learning goes global: Cross-sectional return predictability in international stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    6. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Mikael Frenette & Karin Klieber, 2023. "From Reactive to Proactive Volatility Modeling with Hemisphere Neural Networks," Working Papers 23-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Nov 2023.
    7. Damir Filipovi'c & Puneet Pasricha, 2022. "Empirical Asset Pricing via Ensemble Gaussian Process Regression," Papers 2212.01048, arXiv.org.
    8. Vitor Azevedo & Georg Sebastian Kaiser & Sebastian Mueller, 2023. "Stock market anomalies and machine learning across the globe," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(5), pages 419-441, September.
    9. Umar, Zaghum & Zaremba, Adam & Umutlu, Mehmet & Mercik, Aleksander, 2024. "Interaction effects in the cross-section of country and industry returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    10. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Mikael Frenette & Karin Klieber, 2023. "From Reactive to Proactive Volatility Modeling with Hemisphere Neural Networks," Papers 2311.16333, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    11. Christian Fieberg & Daniel Metko & Thorsten Poddig & Thomas Loy, 2023. "Machine learning techniques for cross-sectional equity returns’ prediction," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(1), pages 289-323, March.
    12. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Otto, Tizian, 2023. "Forecasting Stock Market Crashes via Machine Learning," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock return prediction; Machine learning; Active trading strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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