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What drives stock returns across countries? Insights from machine learning models

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  • Cakici, Nusret
  • Zaremba, Adam

Abstract

We employ machine learning techniques to examine cross-sectional variation in country equity returns by aggregating information across multiple market characteristics. Our models reveal significant return predictability, which translates into discernible patterns in portfolio performance. In addition, variable importance analysis uncovers a sparse factor structure that varies across forecast horizons. A handful of critical predictors—such as long-term reversal, momentum, earnings yield, and market size—capture most of the return differences, while country risk measures play a minor role. Consistent with the partial segmentation perspective, return predictability persists in small, illiquid, and unintegrated markets and weakens over time as the constraints on capital mobility diminish. As a result, attempts to forge them into profitable strategies can be challenging at best.

Suggested Citation

  • Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "What drives stock returns across countries? Insights from machine learning models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:96:y:2024:i:pa:s1057521924005015
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103569
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Machine learning; Factor investing; The cross-section of stock returns; International markets; Return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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