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Deep Learning in Asset Pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Luyang Chen

    (Institute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

  • Markus Pelger

    (Department of Management Science & Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

  • Jason Zhu

    (Department of Management Science & Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

Abstract

We use deep neural networks to estimate an asset pricing model for individual stock returns that takes advantage of the vast amount of conditioning information, keeps a fully flexible form, and accounts for time variation. The key innovations are to use the fundamental no-arbitrage condition as criterion function to construct the most informative test assets with an adversarial approach and to extract the states of the economy from many macroeconomic time series. Our asset pricing model outperforms out-of-sample all benchmark approaches in terms of Sharpe ratio, explained variation, and pricing errors and identifies the key factors that drive asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Luyang Chen & Markus Pelger & Jason Zhu, 2024. "Deep Learning in Asset Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(2), pages 714-750, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:70:y:2024:i:2:p:714-750
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.4695
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    9. Victor Chernozhukov & Whitney Newey & Rahul Singh & Vasilis Syrgkanis, 2020. "Adversarial Estimation of Riesz Representers," Papers 2101.00009, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    10. Ma, Tian & Wang, Wanwan & Chen, Yu, 2023. "Attention is all you need: An interpretable transformer-based asset allocation approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Eric Andr'e & Guillaume Coqueret, 2020. "Dirichlet policies for reinforced factor portfolios," Papers 2011.05381, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    12. Qihui Chen & Nikolai Roussanov & Xiaoliang Wang, 2021. "Semiparametric Conditional Factor Models: Estimation and Inference," Papers 2112.07121, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    13. Tian Ma & Cunfei Liao & Fuwei Jiang, 2023. "Timing the factor zoo via deep learning: Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 485-505, March.
    14. Philip Ndikum, 2020. "Machine Learning Algorithms for Financial Asset Price Forecasting," Papers 2004.01504, arXiv.org.
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    17. Mykola Babiak & Jozef Barunik, 2020. "Deep Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns," Papers 2009.03394, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
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    19. Grammig, Joachim & Hanenberg, Constantin & Schlag, Christian & Sönksen, Jantje, 2020. "Diverging roads: Theory-based vs. machine learning-implied stock risk premia," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 130, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    20. Haoyang Cao & Xin Guo, 2021. "Generative Adversarial Network: Some Analytical Perspectives," Papers 2104.12210, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
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