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How streetcars shaped suburbanization: a Granger causality analysis of land use and transit in the Twin Cities

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  • Feng Xie
  • David Levinson

Abstract

This paper presents a causality analysis of the coupled development of population and streetcars in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Historic residence and network data were assembled for 1900-1930, and linear cross-sectional time-series models were estimated at both a tract and block level using this data. It is found that, in contrast with transportation systems that were expanded in response to increased demand, the rapid expansion of the streetcar system during the electric era has been driven by other forces and to a large extent led land development in the Twin Cities. The main forces that have driven this process include technological superiority, monopoly, close connections with real estate business, and peopleÕs reliance on the streetcar for mobility. Proximity to the streetcar is found to be a crucial factor that determines the distribution and development of residences: it is observed that residential density declines with the distance from streetcar lines, and significantly drops beyond a walkable distance; it is also observed that gaining a closer access to streetcar lines within 800 meters (about a half mile) predicts the increase in residential density to a significant extent.
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  • Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2010. "How streetcars shaped suburbanization: a Granger causality analysis of land use and transit in the Twin Cities," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 453-470, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jecgeo:v:10:y:2010:i:3:p:453-470
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    1. Michael J Corbett & Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2009. "Evolution of the Second-Story City: The Minneapolis Skyway System," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 36(4), pages 711-724, August.
    2. David Levinson, 2008. "Density and dispersion: the co-development of land use and rail in London," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 55-77, January.
    3. Robert Cervero & Mark Hansen, 2002. "Induced Travel Demand and Induced Road Investment: A Simultaneous Equation Analysis," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(3), pages 469-490, September.
    4. Michael Iacono & David Levinson & Ahmed El-Geneidy, 2007. "Models of Transportation and Land Use Change: A Guide to the Territory," Working Papers 200805, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-

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