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Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures

Author

Listed:
  • Dabo Guan

    (Tsinghua University
    University College London)

  • Daoping Wang

    (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

  • Stephane Hallegatte

    (The World Bank)

  • Steven J. Davis

    (University of California, Irvine)

  • Jingwen Huo

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Shuping Li

    (Shandong University)

  • Yangchun Bai

    (Shandong University)

  • Tianyang Lei

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Qianyu Xue

    (Shandong University)

  • D’Maris Coffman

    (University College London)

  • Danyang Cheng

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Peipei Chen

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Xi Liang

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • Bing Xu

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University)

  • Xiaosheng Lu

    (Spark Ventures)

  • Shouyang Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Klaus Hubacek

    (University of Groningen)

  • Peng Gong

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University)

Abstract

Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Dabo Guan & Daoping Wang & Stephane Hallegatte & Steven J. Davis & Jingwen Huo & Shuping Li & Yangchun Bai & Tianyang Lei & Qianyu Xue & D’Maris Coffman & Danyang Cheng & Peipei Chen & Xi Liang & Bing, 2020. "Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(6), pages 577-587, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:4:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1038_s41562-020-0896-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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