IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v117y2022icp169-180.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of Wuhan highway lockdown measures on the spread of COVID-19 in China

Author

Listed:
  • Meng, Xin
  • Guo, Mingxue
  • Gao, Ziyou
  • Yang, Zhenzhen
  • Yuan, Zhilu
  • Kang, Liujiang

Abstract

To verify the effects of Wuhan highway lockdown measures on the spread of COVID-19 across China cities, we extracted the vehicle outflow from Wuhan to 245 cities from the Chinese highway toll system. A dynamic exponential risk model that considered the vehicle outflow, city gross domestic product, city population, and distance between two cities was established to characterize the spread of pandemics and quantify the blocking effects. Results showed that an early highway lockdown measure could indeed reduce the confirmed cases and vehicles with 1–9 seats played a leading role. The confirmed cases in Guangxi, Henan, and Shanxi could be reduced by more than 50%, as well as Hubei by 20% if the highway was closed 3 days in advance. The blocking effects on Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Hunan, and Shandong were not obvious, where the number of confirmed cases only decreased by a small proportion (below 10%). The findings could be used to help each provincial government to adjust policies properly and improve the effectiveness of epidemic control and prevention. Moreover, the proposed method could also be applied to various countries or regions affected by COVID-19, as well as other similar pandemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Meng, Xin & Guo, Mingxue & Gao, Ziyou & Yang, Zhenzhen & Yuan, Zhilu & Kang, Liujiang, 2022. "The effects of Wuhan highway lockdown measures on the spread of COVID-19 in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 169-180.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:117:y:2022:i:c:p:169-180
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.01.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X22000178
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.01.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierre Nouvellet & Sangeeta Bhatia & Anne Cori & Kylie E. C. Ainslie & Marc Baguelin & Samir Bhatt & Adhiratha Boonyasiri & Nicholas F. Brazeau & Lorenzo Cattarino & Laura V. Cooper & Helen Coupland &, 2021. "Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Shengjie Lai & Nick W. Ruktanonchai & Liangcai Zhou & Olivia Prosper & Wei Luo & Jessica R. Floyd & Amy Wesolowski & Mauricio Santillana & Chi Zhang & Xiangjun Du & Hongjie Yu & Andrew J. Tatem, 2020. "Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 585(7825), pages 410-413, September.
    3. Xiao-Yong Yan & Wen-Xu Wang & Zi-You Gao & Ying-Cheng Lai, 2017. "Universal model of individual and population mobility on diverse spatial scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Zhang, Yahua & Zhang, Anming & Wang, Jiaoe, 2020. "Exploring the roles of high-speed train, air and coach services in the spread of COVID-19 in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 34-42.
    5. Jayson S. Jia & Xin Lu & Yun Yuan & Ge Xu & Jianmin Jia & Nicholas A. Christakis, 2020. "Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 582(7812), pages 389-394, June.
    6. Li, Tao & Rong, Lili & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "Assessing regional risk of COVID-19 infection from Wuhan via high-speed rail," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 226-238.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ao Zhang & Hao Yang & Shuning Tong & Jingqi Gao, 2022. "An Investigation on Chinese Public Acceptance of COVID-19 Prevention Measures," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-14, April.
    2. Meng, Xin & Guo, Mingxue & Gao, Ziyou & Kang, Liujiang, 2023. "Interaction between travel restriction policies and the spread of COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 209-227.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zihao Yang & Ramayya Krishnan & Beibei Li, 2024. "The Interplay Between Individual Mobility, Health Risk, and Economic Choice: A Holistic Model for COVID-19 Policy Intervention," INFORMS Joural on Data Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 6-27, April.
    2. Wang, Peipei & Liu, Haiyan & Zheng, Xinqi & Ma, Ruifang, 2023. "A new method for spatio-temporal transmission prediction of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Xiaoyan Mu & Anthony Gar-On Yeh & Xiaohu Zhang, 2021. "The interplay of spatial spread of COVID-19 and human mobility in the urban system of China during the Chinese New Year," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(7), pages 1955-1971, September.
    4. Mingke Xie & Yang Chen & Luliang Tang, 2022. "Exploring the Impact of Localized COVID-19 Events on Intercity Mobility during the Normalized Prevention and Control Period in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Ye, Maoxin & Lyu, Zeyu, 2020. "Trust, risk perception, and COVID-19 infections: Evidence from multilevel analyses of combined original dataset in China," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    6. Zhou, Xin & Liao, Wenzhu, 2023. "Research on demand forecasting and distribution of emergency medical supplies using an agent-based model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    7. Yang, Senyan & Ning, Lianju & Jiang, Tingfeng & He, Yingqi, 2021. "Dynamic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the regional express logistics: Evidence from China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 111-124.
    8. Li, Tao & Rong, Lili & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "Assessing regional risk of COVID-19 infection from Wuhan via high-speed rail," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 226-238.
    9. Zhang, Qiang & Tong, Qiong, 2021. "The economic impacts of traffic consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic in China: A CGE analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 330-337.
    10. Chao Fan & Yang Yang & Ali Mostafavi, 2024. "Neural embeddings of urban big data reveal spatial structures in cities," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Meng, Xin & Guo, Mingxue & Gao, Ziyou & Kang, Liujiang, 2023. "Interaction between travel restriction policies and the spread of COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 209-227.
    12. Liu, Shasha & Yamamoto, Toshiyuki, 2022. "Role of stay-at-home requests and travel restrictions in preventing the spread of COVID-19 in Japan," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 1-16.
    13. Qiang Wang & Min Su & Min Zhang & Rongrong Li, 2021. "Integrating Digital Technologies and Public Health to Fight Covid-19 Pandemic: Key Technologies, Applications, Challenges and Outlook of Digital Healthcare," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-50, June.
    14. Bo Huang & Jionghua Wang & Jixuan Cai & Shiqi Yao & Paul Kay Sheung Chan & Tony Hong-wing Tam & Ying-Yi Hong & Corrine W. Ruktanonchai & Alessandra Carioli & Jessica R. Floyd & Nick W. Ruktanonchai & , 2021. "Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 695-705, June.
    15. Fang, Guanfu & Tang, Tianyu & Zhao, Fang & Zhu, Ying, 2023. "The social scar of the pandemic: Impacts of COVID-19 exposure on interpersonal trust," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    16. Tianyi Li & Jiawen Luo & Cunrui Huang, 2021. "Urban Epidemic Hazard Index for Chinese Cities: Why Did Small Cities Become Epidemic Hotspots?," Papers 2103.05189, arXiv.org.
    17. Yuwei LingHu & Shanjing Ren, 2022. "Analysis of the Impact of Interprovincial Migration on the First Wave of COVID-19 Transmission in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, April.
    18. Liang, Zhenglin & Jiang, Chen & Sun, Muxia & Xue, Zongqi & Li, Yan-Fu, 2023. "Resilience analysis for confronting the spreading risk of contagious diseases," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    19. Sparks, Kevin & Moehl, Jessica & Weber, Eric & Brelsford, Christa & Rose, Amy, 2022. "Shifting temporal dynamics of human mobility in the United States," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    20. Patrick Urrutia & David Wren & Chrysafis Vogiatzis & Ruriko Yoshida, 2022. "SARS-CoV-2 Dissemination Using a Network of the US Counties," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-23, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:117:y:2022:i:c:p:169-180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.