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Estimation of useful-stage energy returns on investment for fossil fuels and implications for renewable energy systems

Author

Listed:
  • Emmanuel Aramendia

    (University of Leeds)

  • Paul E. Brockway

    (University of Leeds)

  • Peter G. Taylor

    (University of Leeds
    University of Leeds)

  • Jonathan B. Norman

    (University of Leeds)

  • Matthew K. Heun

    (University of Leeds
    Calvin University
    Stellenbosch University)

  • Zeke Marshall

    (University of Leeds
    UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

Abstract

The net energy implications of the energy transition have so far been analysed at best at the final energy stage. Here we argue that expanding the analysis to the useful stage is crucial. We estimate fossil fuelsʼ useful-stage energy returns on investment (EROIs) over the period 1971–2020, globally and nationally, and disaggregate EROIs by end use. We find that fossil fuelsʼ useful-stage EROIs (~3.5:1) are considerably lower than at the final stage (~8.5:1), due to low final-to-useful efficiencies. Further, we estimate the final-stage EROI for which electricity-yielding renewable energy would deliver the same net useful energy as fossil fuels (EROI equivalent) to be approximately 4.6:1. The EROIs of electricity-yielding renewable energy systems, based on published estimations, are found to be higher than the determined EROI equivalent, even considering the effects of intermittency under a range of energy transition scenarios. Results suggest that the energy transition may happen without a decline in net useful energy, countering the view that renewable energy systems cannot replace fossil fuels without incurring a substantial energy penalty.

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  • Emmanuel Aramendia & Paul E. Brockway & Peter G. Taylor & Jonathan B. Norman & Matthew K. Heun & Zeke Marshall, 2024. "Estimation of useful-stage energy returns on investment for fossil fuels and implications for renewable energy systems," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 803-816, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:9:y:2024:i:7:d:10.1038_s41560-024-01518-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-024-01518-6
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