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The Energy-emissions Trap

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  • Sers, Martin R.
  • Victor, Peter A.

Abstract

The requirement to reduce emissions to avoid potentially dangerous climate change implies a dilemma for societies heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Reducing emissions will necessitate the transition from relatively high EROI dispatchable fossil fuels to a combination of relatively low EROI intermittent renewables and geographically limited non-intermittent renewables. As renewable capacity requires energy to construct there is an initial fossil fuel cost to creating new renewable capacity. An insufficiently rapid transition to renewables will imply a scenario in which it is impossible to avoid either transgressing emissions ceilings or facing energy shortages; we term this the energy-emissions trap. In this paper, we construct a mathematical model, termed EETRAP, that builds the EROI metric and the energy characteristics of renewable generation into a macroeconomic framework. EETRAP is used for simulation analysis to test how differing assumptions about the EROI of intermittent renewables will affect the time-path of renewable investment necessary to escape the energy-emissions trap. For all runs of the model, the renewable investment rate by 2050 is significantly larger than the current energy investment rate. For declining intermittent renewable EROI, the renewable investment rate crowds out other forms of investment leading to a declining economic growth rate.

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  • Sers, Martin R. & Victor, Peter A., 2018. "The Energy-emissions Trap," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 10-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:151:y:2018:i:c:p:10-21
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.04.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles A. S. Hall & Stephen Balogh & David J.R. Murphy, 2009. "What is the Minimum EROI that a Sustainable Society Must Have?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, January.
    2. Moriarty, Patrick & Honnery, Damon, 2016. "Can renewable energy power the future?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 3-7.
    3. Hall, Charles A.S. & Lambert, Jessica G. & Balogh, Stephen B., 2014. "EROI of different fuels and the implications for society," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 141-152.
    4. Lambert, Jessica G. & Hall, Charles A.S. & Balogh, Stephen & Gupta, Ajay & Arnold, Michelle, 2014. "Energy, EROI and quality of life," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 153-167.
    5. Graham Palmer, 2017. "A Framework for Incorporating EROI into Electrical Storage," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 1-19, June.
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    Cited by:

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    4. Jacques, Pierre & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Yilmaz, Devrim & Jeanmart, Hervé & Godin, Antoine, 2023. "Assessing the economic consequences of an energy transition through a biophysical stock-flow consistent model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Jackson, Andrew & Jackson, Tim, 2021. "Modelling energy transition risk: The impact of declining energy return on investment (EROI)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    6. Melgar-Melgar, Rigo E. & Hall, Charles A.S., 2020. "Why ecological economics needs to return to its roots: The biophysical foundation of socio-economic systems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. Rezaei, Mahbobe & Amiri, Hamid & Shafiei, Marzieh, 2021. "Aqueous pretreatment of triticale straw for integrated production of hemicellulosic methane and cellulosic butanol," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 971-980.
    8. Jonathan Dumas & Antoine Dubois & Paolo Thiran & Pierre Jacques & Francesco Contino & Bertrand Cornélusse & Gauthier Limpens, 2022. "The Energy Return on Investment of Whole-Energy Systems: Application to Belgium," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 1-34, December.
    9. da Silva Neves, Marcus Vinicius & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2023. "Fossil fuel facilities exergy return for a frontier of analysis incorporating CO2 capture: The case of a coal power plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    10. Emmanuel Aramendia & Paul E. Brockway & Peter G. Taylor & Jonathan B. Norman & Matthew K. Heun & Zeke Marshall, 2024. "Estimation of useful-stage energy returns on investment for fossil fuels and implications for renewable energy systems," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 803-816, July.
    11. Diesendorf, M. & Wiedmann, T., 2020. "Implications of Trends in Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) for Transitioning to Renewable Electricity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    12. Jackson, Tim, 2019. "The Post-growth Challenge: Secular Stagnation, Inequality and the Limits to Growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 236-246.
    13. Aramendia, Emmanuel & Brockway, Paul E. & Taylor, Peter G. & Norman, Jonathan B., 2024. "Exploring the effects of mineral depletion on renewable energy technologies net energy returns," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    14. Nieto, Jaime & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis J. & de Blas, Ignacio, 2020. "Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Kevin Pahud & Greg de Temmerman, 2022. "Overview of the EROI, a tool to measure energy availability through the energy transition," Post-Print hal-03780085, HAL.
    16. Hongshuo Yan & Lianyong Feng & Jianliang Wang & Yuanying Chi & Yue Ma, 2021. "A Comprehensive Net Energy Analysis and Outlook of Energy System in China," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 1-14, December.
    17. Schönfisch, Max, 2022. "Charting the Development of a Global Market for Low-Carbon Hydrogen," EWI Working Papers 2022-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    18. Spangenberg, Joachim H. & Lorek, Sylvia, 2019. "Sufficiency and consumer behaviour: From theory to policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1070-1079.
    19. Mair, Simon & Druckman, Angela & Jackson, Tim, 2020. "A tale of two utopias: Work in a post-growth world," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).

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