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Tipping point-induced abrupt shifts in East Asian hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum

Author

Listed:
  • Fuzhi Lu

    (Nanjing University)

  • Huayu Lu

    (Nanjing University)

  • Yao Gu

    (Nanjing University)

  • Pengyu Lin

    (Nanjing University)

  • Zhengyao Lu

    (Lund University)

  • Qiong Zhang

    (Stockholm University)

  • Hongyan Zhang

    (Nanjing University)

  • Fan Yang

    (Nanjing University)

  • Xiaoyi Dong

    (Nanjing University)

  • Shuangwen Yi

    (Nanjing University)

  • Deliang Chen

    (University of Gothenburg)

  • Francesco S. R. Pausata

    (University of Quebec in Montreal)

  • Maya Ben-Yami

    (Technical University of Munich
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Jennifer V. Mecking

    (National Oceanography Centre)

Abstract

Multiple tipping points in the Earth system could be triggered when global warming exceeds specific thresholds. However, the degree of their impact on the East Asian hydroclimate remains uncertain due to the lack of quantitative rainfall records. Here we present an ensemble reconstruction of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using nine statistical and machine learning methods based on multi-proxy records from a maar lake in southern China. Our results define five tipping points in the EASM rainfall since the LGM, which are characterized by abrupt and irreversible regime shifts with a median amplitude of 387 ± 73 mm (24 ± 5 %). Combined with multi-model simulations and existing records, we attribute these tipping points to cascades of abrupt shifts in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and Saharan vegetation. Our findings underscore the nonlinear behavior of the EASM and its coupling with other tipping elements.

Suggested Citation

  • Fuzhi Lu & Huayu Lu & Yao Gu & Pengyu Lin & Zhengyao Lu & Qiong Zhang & Hongyan Zhang & Fan Yang & Xiaoyi Dong & Shuangwen Yi & Deliang Chen & Francesco S. R. Pausata & Maya Ben-Yami & Jennifer V. Mec, 2025. "Tipping point-induced abrupt shifts in East Asian hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-55888-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-55888-w
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