IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-33646-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The deglacial forest conundrum

Author

Listed:
  • Anne Dallmeyer

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Thomas Kleinen

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Martin Claussen

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
    Universität Hamburg)

  • Nils Weitzel

    (Heidelberg University
    University of Tübingen)

  • Xianyong Cao

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Ulrike Herzschuh

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    University of Potsdam
    University of Potsdam)

Abstract

How fast the Northern Hemisphere (NH) forest biome tracks strongly warming climates is largely unknown. Regional studies reveal lags between decades and millennia. Here we report a conundrum: Deglacial forest expansion in the NH extra-tropics occurs approximately 4000 years earlier in a transient MPI-ESM1.2 simulation than shown by pollen-based biome reconstructions. Shortcomings in the model and the reconstructions could both contribute to this mismatch, leaving the underlying causes unresolved. The simulated vegetation responds within decades to simulated climate changes, which agree with pollen-independent reconstructions. Thus, we can exclude climate biases as main driver for differences. Instead, the mismatch points at a multi-millennial disequilibrium of the NH forest biome to the climate signal. Therefore, the evaluation of time-slice simulations in strongly changing climates with pollen records should be critically reassessed. Our results imply that NH forests may be responding much slower to ongoing climate changes than Earth System Models predict.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne Dallmeyer & Thomas Kleinen & Martin Claussen & Nils Weitzel & Xianyong Cao & Ulrike Herzschuh, 2022. "The deglacial forest conundrum," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-33646-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33646-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33646-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-33646-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ulrike Herzschuh & H. John B. Birks & Thomas Laepple & Andrei Andreev & Martin Melles & Julie Brigham-Grette, 2016. "Glacial legacies on interglacial vegetation at the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition in NE Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, September.
    2. Alan M. Seltzer & Jessica Ng & Werner Aeschbach & Rolf Kipfer & Justin T. Kulongoski & Jeffrey P. Severinghaus & Martin Stute, 2021. "Widespread six degrees Celsius cooling on land during the Last Glacial Maximum," Nature, Nature, vol. 593(7858), pages 228-232, May.
    3. Scott R. Loarie & Philip B. Duffy & Healy Hamilton & Gregory P. Asner & Christopher B. Field & David D. Ackerly, 2009. "The velocity of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 462(7276), pages 1052-1055, December.
    4. Matthew B. Osman & Jessica E. Tierney & Jiang Zhu & Robert Tardif & Gregory J. Hakim & Jonathan King & Christopher J. Poulsen, 2021. "Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum," Nature, Nature, vol. 599(7884), pages 239-244, November.
    5. Pascale Braconnot & Sandy P. Harrison & Masa Kageyama & Patrick J. Bartlein & Valerie Masson-Delmotte & Ayako Abe-Ouchi & Bette Otto-Bliesner & Yan Zhao, 2012. "Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 417-424, June.
    6. Jeremy D. Shakun & Peter U. Clark & Feng He & Shaun A. Marcott & Alan C. Mix & Zhengyu Liu & Bette Otto-Bliesner & Andreas Schmittner & Edouard Bard, 2012. "Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation," Nature, Nature, vol. 484(7392), pages 49-54, April.
    7. Jessica E. Tierney & Jiang Zhu & Jonathan King & Steven B. Malevich & Gregory J. Hakim & Christopher J. Poulsen, 2020. "Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7822), pages 569-573, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wen-Yong Guo & Josep M. Serra-Diaz & Wolf L. Eiserhardt & Brian S. Maitner & Cory Merow & Cyrille Violle & Matthew J. Pound & Miao Sun & Ferry Slik & Anne Blach-Overgaard & Brian J. Enquist & Jens-Chr, 2023. "Climate change and land use threaten global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. H. Løland & Y. Krüger & A. Fernandez & F. Buckingham & S. A. Carolin & H. Sodemann & J. F. Adkins & K. M. Cobb & A. N. Meckler, 2022. "Evolution of tropical land temperature across the last glacial termination," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Olivier Cartapanis & Lukas Jonkers & Paola Moffa-Sanchez & Samuel L. Jaccard & Anne Vernal, 2022. "Complex spatio-temporal structure of the Holocene Thermal Maximum," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Wenchao Zhang & Haibin Wu & Jun Cheng & Junyan Geng & Qin Li & Yong Sun & Yanyan Yu & Huayu Lu & Zhengtang Guo, 2022. "Holocene seasonal temperature evolution and spatial variability over the Northern Hemisphere landmass," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. E. W. Patterson & V. Skiba & A. Wolf & M. L. Griffiths & D. McGee & T. N. Bùi & M. X. Trần & T. H. Đinh & Q. Đỗ-Trọng & G. R. Goldsmith & V. Ersek & K. R. Johnson, 2024. "Local hydroclimate alters interpretation of speleothem δ18O records," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Jonathan King & Kevin J. Anchukaitis & Kathryn Allen & Tessa Vance & Amy Hessl, 2023. "Trends and variability in the Southern Annular Mode over the Common Era," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Tsai, Bi-Huei & Chang, Chih-Jen & Chang, Chun-Hsien, 2016. "Elucidating the consumption and CO2 emissions of fossil fuels and low-carbon energy in the United States using Lotka–Volterra models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 416-424.
    7. Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla & Nellie Elguindi & Filippo Giorgi & Dominik Wisser, 2016. "Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 241-253, January.
    8. Mouhamadou Sylla & Nellie Elguindi & Filippo Giorgi & Dominik Wisser, 2016. "Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 241-253, January.
    9. Shuai Zhang & Zhoufei Yu & Yue Wang & Xun Gong & Ann Holbourn & Fengming Chang & Heng Liu & Xuhua Cheng & Tiegang Li, 2022. "Thermal coupling of the Indo-Pacific warm pool and Southern Ocean over the past 30,000 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    10. Zhi-Ping Zhong & Jingjie Du & Stephan Köstlbacher & Petra Pjevac & Sandi Orlić & Matthew B. Sullivan, 2024. "Viral potential to modulate microbial methane metabolism varies by habitat," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Meineri, Eric & Dahlberg, C. Johan & Hylander, Kristoffer, 2015. "Using Gaussian Bayesian Networks to disentangle direct and indirect associations between landscape physiography, environmental variables and species distribution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 127-136.
    12. Jinmeng Lee & Xiaojun Yin & Honghui Zhu, 2024. "Spatial Optimization of Land Use Allocation Based on the Trade-off of Carbon Mitigation and Economic Benefits: A Study in Tianshan North Slope Urban Agglomeration," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-18, June.
    13. Hongfei Wang & Zhipeng Yu & Jie Zhou & Chengming Li & Ananthanarasimhan Jayanarasimhan & Xiqiang Zhao & Hao Zhang, 2023. "A Scientometric Review of CO 2 Electroreduction Research from 2005 to 2022," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-21, January.
    14. Michael A. Wulder & Jeffrey A. Cardille & Joanne C. White & Bronwyn Rayfield, 2018. "Context and Opportunities for Expanding Protected Areas in Canada," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-21, November.
    15. Fernando Goulart & Frédéric Mertens, 2017. "The Late mangos- Is There Any Doubt Humans Are Inducing Climate Change?," Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research, Biomedical Research Network+, LLC, vol. 1(7), pages 2022-2024, December.
    16. Bruno R Ribeiro & Lilian P Sales & Paulo De Marco Jr. & Rafael Loyola, 2016. "Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, November.
    17. Alexander Correa-Metrio & Mark Bush & Socorro Lozano-García & Susana Sosa-Nájera, 2013. "Millennial-Scale Temperature Change Velocity in the Continental Northern Neotropics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-1, December.
    18. Leslie A. Jones & Clint C. Muhlfeld & Lucy A. Marshall, 2017. "Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(4), pages 641-655, October.
    19. Erickson, Adam & Nitschke, Craig & Coops, Nicholas & Cumming, Steven & Stenhouse, Gordon, 2015. "Past-century decline in forest regeneration potential across a latitudinal and elevational gradient in Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 94-102.
    20. Yajie Dong & Naiqin Wu & Fengjiang Li & Dan Zhang & Yueting Zhang & Caiming Shen & Houyuan Lu, 2022. "The Holocene temperature conundrum answered by mollusk records from East Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-33646-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.